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[79.135.106.30]) by gmr-mx.google.com with ESMTPS id 5b1f17b1804b1-459e1d0a218si3793635e9.0.2025.08.09.12.38.29 for (version=TLS1_3 cipher=TLS_AES_256_GCM_SHA384 bits=256/256); Sat, 09 Aug 2025 12:38:30 -0700 (PDT) Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of armchaircryptologist@protonmail.com designates 79.135.106.30 as permitted sender) client-ip=79.135.106.30; Date: Sat, 09 Aug 2025 19:38:23 +0000 To: Bitcoin Development Mailing List , Bitcoin Foundation From: "'ArmchairCryptologist' via Bitcoin Development Mailing List" Subject: Re: [bitcoindev] Re: [Draft BIP] Quantum-Resistant Transition Framework for Bitcoin Message-ID: <1LDO_bQOdcKkNoKyyjfqLXAPUBVXSL667nAKDCNUfN2D7HEpDAkuFQrMubklIi1QdDI6BXdgB674g4uWYRlyQ5f-dlztDtnoEbIAlmrCg5M=@protonmail.com> In-Reply-To: <6532d72c-fc2b-485a-9984-a9ade31e1760n@googlegroups.com> References: <4d6ecde7-e959-4e6c-a0aa-867af8577151n@googlegroups.com> <6532d72c-fc2b-485a-9984-a9ade31e1760n@googlegroups.com> Feedback-ID: 24244585:user:proton X-Pm-Message-ID: 87f7dcb467db4db1c81e24f379d5ad11ebea5322 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="b1=_jIV8gSTRTH1oX4cmlQHE7IeEpcNQwtMmL63SNtWgu8" X-Original-Sender: armchaircryptologist@protonmail.com X-Original-Authentication-Results: gmr-mx.google.com; dkim=pass header.i=@protonmail.com header.s=protonmail3 header.b="f/zWytAk"; spf=pass (google.com: domain of armchaircryptologist@protonmail.com designates 79.135.106.30 as permitted sender) smtp.mailfrom=ArmchairCryptologist@protonmail.com; dmarc=pass (p=QUARANTINE sp=QUARANTINE dis=NONE) header.from=protonmail.com X-Original-From: ArmchairCryptologist Reply-To: ArmchairCryptologist Precedence: list Mailing-list: list bitcoindev@googlegroups.com; contact bitcoindev+owners@googlegroups.com List-ID: X-Google-Group-Id: 786775582512 List-Post: , List-Help: , List-Archive: , List-Unsubscribe: , X-Spam-Score: -1.0 (-) --b1=_jIV8gSTRTH1oX4cmlQHE7IeEpcNQwtMmL63SNtWgu8 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable > An astute observation. To clarify the quantum computing landscape: Google= 's current quantum processors do not possess 50 logical qubits, and even if= they did, this would be insufficient to compromise ECDSA - let alone RSA-2= 048, which would require approximately 20 million noisy physical qubits for= successful cryptanalysis [0]. That paper is pretty old. There is a recent paper from a couple of months a= go by the same author (Craig Gidney from Google Quantum AI) claiming that y= ou could break RSA-2048 with around a million noisy qubits in about a week. Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2505.15917 Blog post: https://security.googleblog.com/2025/05/tracking-cost-of-quantum= -factori.html I can't say for sure whether this approach can be applied to ECDSA; I have = seen claims before that it has less quantum resistance than RSA-2048, but I= 'm unsure if this is still considered to be the case. And while these paper= s are of course largely theoretical in nature since nothing close to the re= quired amount of qubits exists at this point, I haven't seen anyone refute = these claim at this point. These is still no hard evidence I'm aware of tha= t a quantum computer capable of breaking ECDSA is inevitable, but given the= rate of development, there could be some cause of concern. Getting post-quantum addresses designed, implemented and activated by 2030 = in accordance with the recommendations in this paper seems prudent to me, i= f this is at all possible. Deactivating inactive pre-quantum UTXOs with exp= osed public keys by 2035 should certainly be considered. But I still don't = feel like deactivating pre-quantum UTXOs without exposed public keys in gen= eral is warranted, at least until a quantum computer capable of breaking pu= blic keys in the short time between they are broadcast and included in a bl= ock is known to exist - and even then, only if some scheme could be devised= that still allows spending them using some additional cryptographic proof = of ownership, ZKP or otherwise. -- Best, ArmchairCryptologist --=20 You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "= Bitcoin Development Mailing List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an e= mail to bitcoindev+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/bitcoindev/= 1LDO_bQOdcKkNoKyyjfqLXAPUBVXSL667nAKDCNUfN2D7HEpDAkuFQrMubklIi1QdDI6BXdgB67= 4g4uWYRlyQ5f-dlztDtnoEbIAlmrCg5M%3D%40protonmail.com. --b1=_jIV8gSTRTH1oX4cmlQHE7IeEpcNQwtMmL63SNtWgu8 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

=20 An astute observation. To clarify the quantum computing landscape: Google's current quantum processors do not possess 50 logical qubits, and even if they did, this would be insufficient to compromise ECDSA - let alone RSA-2048, which would require approximately 20 million noisy physical qubits for successful cryptanalysis [0].

=
That paper is pretty old. There is a recent paper from a c= ouple of months ago by the same author (Craig Gidney from=  Google Quantum AI) claiming that you could break RSA-204= 8 with around a million noisy qubits in about a week. 


I can't say for sure whether this approach can be applied to=20 ECDSA; I have seen claims before that it has less quantum resistance than R= SA-2048, but I'm unsure if this is still considered to be the case. And whi= le these papers are of course largely theoretical in nature=20 since nothing close to the required amount of qubits exists at this=20 point, I haven't seen anyone refute these claim at this point. These is sti= ll no hard evidence I'm aware of that a quantum computer capable of breakin= g ECDSA is inevitable, but given the rate of development, there could be so= me cause of concern.

Getting post-quantum ad= dresses designed, implemented and activated by 2030 in accordance with the = recommendations in this paper seems prudent to me, if this is at all possib= le. Deactivating inactive pre-quantum UTXOs with exposed = public keys by 2035 should certainly be considered. But I still don't feel = like deactivating pre-quantum UTXOs without exposed public keys in general = is warranted, at least until a quantum computer capable of breaking public = keys in the short time between they are broadcast and included in a block&n= bsp;is known to exist - and even then, only if some schem= e could be devised that still allows spending them using some additional cr= yptographic proof of ownership, ZKP or otherwise.
--
Best,
= ArmchairCryptologist

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