From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Received: from sog-mx-1.v43.ch3.sourceforge.com ([172.29.43.191] helo=mx.sourceforge.net) by sfs-ml-4.v29.ch3.sourceforge.com with esmtp (Exim 4.76) (envelope-from ) id 1VeHHb-00056u-Qe for Bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net; Thu, 07 Nov 2013 04:33:27 +0000 Received-SPF: pass (sog-mx-1.v43.ch3.sourceforge.com: domain of petertodd.org designates 62.13.148.113 as permitted sender) client-ip=62.13.148.113; envelope-from=pete@petertodd.org; helo=outmail148113.authsmtp.com; Received: from outmail148113.authsmtp.com ([62.13.148.113]) by sog-mx-1.v43.ch3.sourceforge.com with esmtp (Exim 4.76) id 1VeHHZ-00031U-Aq for Bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net; Thu, 07 Nov 2013 04:33:27 +0000 Received: from mail-c235.authsmtp.com (mail-c235.authsmtp.com [62.13.128.235]) by punt10.authsmtp.com (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id rA74XFkl005241; Thu, 7 Nov 2013 04:33:15 GMT Received: from savin (76-10-178-109.dsl.teksavvy.com [76.10.178.109]) (authenticated bits=128) by mail.authsmtp.com (8.14.2/8.14.2/) with ESMTP id rA74XAuw095190 (version=TLSv1/SSLv3 cipher=DHE-RSA-AES128-SHA bits=128 verify=NO); Thu, 7 Nov 2013 04:33:12 GMT Date: Wed, 6 Nov 2013 23:33:10 -0500 From: Peter Todd To: Kyle Jerviss Message-ID: <20131107043310.GA30788@savin> References: <5279D49D.5050807@jerviss.org> <20131107034404.GA5140@savin> <527B13EC.7020708@jerviss.org> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/signed; micalg=pgp-sha256; protocol="application/pgp-signature"; boundary="7JfCtLOvnd9MIVvH" Content-Disposition: inline In-Reply-To: <527B13EC.7020708@jerviss.org> User-Agent: Mutt/1.5.21 (2010-09-15) X-Server-Quench: b6ce5561-4765-11e3-b802-002590a15da7 X-AuthReport-Spam: If SPAM / abuse - report it at: http://www.authsmtp.com/abuse X-AuthRoute: OCd2Yg0TA1ZNQRgX IjsJECJaVQIpKltL GxAVKBZePFsRUQkR aAdMdgUUFloCAgsB AmUbW1BeU157WGA7 bAxPbAVDY01GQQRq WVdMSlVNFUsqcBsF bm9bFRl7cgRPeDBx ZUdgVj4JWhcvcEN7 Q1NQEmsDeGZhPWMC AkhYdR5UcAFPdx8U a1UrBXRDAzANdhES HhM4ODE3eDlSNilR RRkIIFQOdA4UE3Y3 ThZKFDErVVcIQywj ZxohNTb9 X-Authentic-SMTP: 61633532353630.1023:706 X-AuthFastPath: 0 (Was 255) X-AuthSMTP-Origin: 76.10.178.109/587 X-AuthVirus-Status: No virus detected - but ensure you scan with your own anti-virus system. 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[URIs: petertodd.org] X-Headers-End: 1VeHHZ-00031U-Aq Cc: Bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net Subject: Re: [Bitcoin-development] we can all relax now X-BeenThere: bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.9 Precedence: list List-Id: List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 07 Nov 2013 04:33:28 -0000 --7JfCtLOvnd9MIVvH Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Disposition: inline Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable On Wed, Nov 06, 2013 at 10:15:40PM -0600, Kyle Jerviss wrote: > You are ignoring the gambler's ruin. We do not operate on an > infinite timeline. If you find a big pool willing to try this, > please give me enough advance warning to get my popcorn ready. Gamblers ruin has nothing to do with it. At every point you want to evaluate the chance the other side will get ahead, vs. cashing in by just publishing the blocks you have. (or some of them) I didn't mention it in the analysis, but obviously you want to keep track of how much the blocks you haven't published are worth to you, and consider publishing some or all of your lead to the rest of the network if you stand to lose more than you gain. Right now it's a mostly theoretical attack because the inflation subsidy is enormous and fees don't matter, but once fees do start to matter things get a lot more complex. An extreme example is announce/commit sacrifices to mining fees: if I'm at block n+1, the rest of the network is at block n, and there's a 100BTC sacrifice at block n+2, I could easily be in a situation where I have zero incentive to publish my block to keep everyone else behind me, and just hope I find block n+2. If I do, great! I'll immediately publish to lock-in my winnings and start working on block n+3 Anyway, my covert suggestion that pools contact me was more to hopefully strike fear into the people mining at a large pool and get them to switch to a small one. :) If everyone mined solo or on p2pool none of this stuff would matter much... but we can't force them too yet. --=20 'peter'[:-1]@petertodd.org 0000000000000005713cac303bd2d529ebeffa82fff60be5307010a83933698d --7JfCtLOvnd9MIVvH Content-Type: application/pgp-signature; name="signature.asc" Content-Description: Digital signature -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- Version: GnuPG v1.4.12 (GNU/Linux) iQGrBAEBCACVBQJSexgFXhSAAAAAABUAQGJsb2NraGFzaEBiaXRjb2luLm9yZzAw MDAwMDAwMDAwMDAwMDY5YmRjNjM2MTkyYzcwNjE3MDY4ZDBhMmIwZWQzMmJhY2Zj MmI5ZGFmN2YxM2U0MDkvFIAAAAAAFQARcGthLWFkZHJlc3NAZ251cGcub3JncGV0 ZUBwZXRlcnRvZC5vcmcACgkQJIFAPaXwkfuFBQf/Ufx9B/E76qdtv5Uw+NobDD18 DC+912bL+AhB6YULzBvpySAWqHqqu+lQGgUSk5O2xdzB+1NBXu5V38sMmatz54L8 Zw8Zh2Ab830ShNVe1gOsEpguPxL8xbWB+GsVLCuGKYXRRhRnvFjj9lZIWK2VYRf5 +hy52gw2M0DWflOETrGmn6VIBnG25a6FuApXX8ST1UvUGtjAGPOQp7GzEsKYJuEC axAbNKDoehJ5HpQ7r7xZqkVmxou9IGJ8lXDxWmGcCZ/Q6AAlKG+Y0weC9fQt5qms yixxESnTYrLwnnF5kNfA0e25CySklwjPmcLVFos9nj9BFSBh1yxk6sI3icaDmA== =tEJ/ -----END PGP SIGNATURE----- --7JfCtLOvnd9MIVvH--