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From: Anthony Towns <aj@erisian.com.au>
To: Peter Todd <pete@petertodd.org>,
	Bitcoin Protocol Discussion
	<bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
Cc: John Carvalho <john@synonym.to>
Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Bitcoin covenants are inevitable
Date: Fri, 8 Jul 2022 08:06:14 +1000	[thread overview]
Message-ID: <20220707220614.GA20899@erisian.com.au> (raw)
In-Reply-To: <Ysbp2QclWW7NzfrS@petertodd.org>

On Thu, Jul 07, 2022 at 10:12:41AM -0400, Peter Todd via bitcoin-dev wrote:
> We should not imbue real technology with magical qualities.

That's much more fun if you invert it, and take it as a mission
statement. Advance technology sufficiently!

> The fact of the matter is that the present amount of security is about 1.7% of
> the total coin supply/year, and Bitcoin seems to be working fine. 1.7% is also
> already an amount low enough that it's much smaller than economic volatility.
> 
> Obviously 0% is too small.
> 
> There's zero reason to stress about finding an "optimal" amount. An amount low
> enough to be easily affordable, but non-zero, is fine. 1% would be fine; 0.5%
> would probably be fine; 0.1% would probably be fine.

For comparison, 0.1% of 21M BTC per annum is 0.4 BTC per block, which
is about 50sat/vb if blocks are 800kvB on average. Doing that purely
with fees seems within the ballpark of feasibility to me.

50sat/vb for a 200vb tx (roughly the size of a 2-in, 2-out p2wpkh/p2tr
tx) is $2 at $20k/BTC, $10 at $100k/BTC, $100 at $1M/BTC etc.

If the current block reward of ~1.7% pa of 19M at a price of $20k funds
the current level of mining activity, then you'd expect a similar level
of mining activity as today with reward at 0.1% pa of 21M at a price
of ~$310k.

Going by the halving schedule, the block subsidy alone will remain above
0.1% of supply until we hit the 0.39 BTC/block regime, in 2036, at which
point it drops to ~0.0986% annualised. (I guess you could extend that by
four years if you're willing to assume more than 1.5% of bitcoin supply
has been permanently lost)

Cheers,
aj



  parent reply	other threads:[~2022-07-07 22:06 UTC|newest]

Thread overview: 55+ messages / expand[flat|nested]  mbox.gz  Atom feed  top
     [not found] <mailman.9.1657195203.20624.bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
2022-07-07 13:24 ` [bitcoin-dev] Bitcoin covenants are inevitable John Carvalho
2022-07-07 14:12   ` Peter Todd
2022-07-07 16:24     ` Eric Voskuil
2022-07-07 17:37       ` Erik Aronesty
2022-07-07 19:57         ` Eric Voskuil
2022-07-07 21:11           ` Erik Aronesty
2022-07-08  0:28             ` Eric Voskuil
2022-07-08  4:59               ` vjudeu
2022-07-08  7:26                 ` John Carvalho
2022-07-08 15:14               ` Erik Aronesty
2022-07-14  4:55                 ` Billy Tetrud
2022-07-07 22:06     ` Anthony Towns [this message]
2022-07-07 22:02   ` Corey Haddad
     [not found] <mailman.9.1654344003.14400.bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
2022-06-04 12:27 ` John Carvalho
2022-06-04 13:48   ` Keagan McClelland
2022-06-04 16:12   ` alicexbt
2022-06-06 13:02   ` Erik Aronesty
2022-06-12  3:36     ` Peter Todd
2022-06-12 13:02       ` Erik Aronesty
2022-06-12 16:35         ` Corey Haddad
2022-06-12 19:16       ` alicexbt
2022-06-19 10:31         ` Peter Todd
2022-06-19 15:54           ` Manuel Costa
2022-06-19 18:26             ` Kate Salazar
2022-06-19 22:35             ` Erik Aronesty
2022-06-21 19:00               ` Keagan McClelland
2022-06-21 20:10                 ` Eric Voskuil
2022-06-23 19:17                 ` Peter Todd
2022-06-28  3:55                   ` Billy Tetrud
2022-06-28 16:23                     ` Alex Lee
2022-06-28 23:22                       ` Peter Todd
2022-06-29  5:02                         ` Alex Lee
2022-06-28 23:20                     ` Peter Todd
2022-06-29 10:44                     ` Kate Salazar
2022-06-30 15:25                       ` Billy Tetrud
2022-07-03  9:43                       ` Peter Todd
2022-07-03 10:30                         ` Giuseppe B
2022-07-06  4:28                           ` Corey Haddad
2022-07-06 11:10                             ` vjudeu
2022-07-07  0:46                               ` Billy Tetrud
2022-07-07 12:15                                 ` vjudeu
2022-07-07 14:05                                 ` Erik Aronesty
2022-07-07 14:10                               ` Giuseppe B
2022-07-08  5:03                                 ` Billy Tetrud
2022-06-30 17:04                     ` Erik Aronesty
2022-06-03 18:39 alicexbt
2022-06-04  0:29 ` micaroni
2022-06-04 18:43 ` Jorge Timón
2022-06-05  4:18   ` alicexbt
2022-06-08  3:51     ` Billy Tetrud
2022-06-08  9:22       ` Jorge Timón
2022-06-09  4:30         ` Billy Tetrud
2022-06-09  0:03     ` Ryan Grant
2022-07-19  4:44 ` Anthony Towns
2022-07-19 14:46   ` alicexbt

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