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[185.26.156.114]) by gmr-mx.google.com with ESMTPS id 38308e7fff4ca-3340a48f80esi3022711fa.3.2025.08.20.10.14.51 for (version=TLS1_3 cipher=TLS_AES_256_GCM_SHA384 bits=256/256); Wed, 20 Aug 2025 10:14:51 -0700 (PDT) Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of murch@murch.one designates 185.26.156.114 as permitted sender) client-ip=185.26.156.114; Received: from farbauti.uberspace.de (farbauti.uberspace.de [185.26.156.235]) by mailgate02.uberspace.is (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 5BCFD180191 for ; Wed, 20 Aug 2025 19:14:51 +0200 (CEST) Received: (qmail 20488 invoked by uid 989); 20 Aug 2025 17:14:51 -0000 Received: from unknown (HELO unkown) (::1) by farbauti.uberspace.de (Haraka/3.0.1) with ESMTPSA; Wed, 20 Aug 2025 19:14:51 +0200 Message-ID: <284507c2-b5d1-45a5-849f-408d3bf364a6@murch.one> Date: Wed, 20 Aug 2025 10:14:47 -0700 MIME-Version: 1.0 User-Agent: Mozilla Thunderbird Subject: Re: [bitcoindev] [Draft BIP] Quantum-Resistant Transition Framework for Bitcoin To: bitcoindev@googlegroups.com References: <4d6ecde7-e959-4e6c-a0aa-867af8577151n@googlegroups.com> Content-Language: en-US From: Murch In-Reply-To: <4d6ecde7-e959-4e6c-a0aa-867af8577151n@googlegroups.com> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-Rspamd-Bar: --- X-Rspamd-Report: BAYES_HAM(-3) XM_UA_NO_VERSION(0.01) MIME_GOOD(-0.1) X-Rspamd-Score: -3.09 X-Original-Sender: murch@murch.one X-Original-Authentication-Results: gmr-mx.google.com; dkim=pass header.i=@murch.one header.s=uberspace header.b=bxx9uLzr; spf=pass (google.com: domain of murch@murch.one designates 185.26.156.114 as permitted sender) smtp.mailfrom=murch@murch.one Precedence: list Mailing-list: list bitcoindev@googlegroups.com; contact bitcoindev+owners@googlegroups.com List-ID: X-Google-Group-Id: 786775582512 List-Post: , List-Help: , List-Archive: , List-Unsubscribe: , X-Spam-Score: -0.8 (/) This proposal is highly reminiscent of Lopp et al=E2=80=99s "A Post Quantum= =20 Migration Proposal"=C2=B9 previously discussed on this list=C2=B2. If this document is explicitly intended as a competing proposal to Lopp=20 et al=E2=80=99s, this proposal would need to explicitly discuss shortcoming= s of=20 Lopp et al=E2=80=99s proposal in a Related Work section and clearly explain= =C2=A0in=20 the Motivation and Rationale sections how this new proposal is an=20 improvement to substantiate that the publication of a second proposal is=20 meaningful. As it is currently presented, I don=E2=80=99t consider this pro= posal=20 a significant value-add due to duplicating work. Regards, =C2=A0 Murch =C2=B9 https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/pull/1895 =C2=B2=20 https://gnusha.org/pi/bitcoindev/CADL_X_fpv-aXBxX+eJ_EVTirkAJGyPRUNqOCYdz5u= m8zu6ma5Q@mail.gmail.com/. On 2025-08-07 11:18, 'Bitcoin Foundation' via Bitcoin Development=20 Mailing List wrote: > BIP: TBD > Layer: Consensus (soft fork) > Title: Quantum-Resistant Transition Framework for Bitcoin > Author: Bitcoin Post-Quantum Working Group=20 > > Status: Draft > Type: Standards Track > Created: 2025-08-07 > License: MIT > Requires: BIP-340, BIP-341 > > =3D=3D ABSTRACT =3D=3D > This proposal defines a backward-compatible, time-bound migration path=20 > to quantum-resistant (QR) cryptography for Bitcoin. Through phased=20 > deprecation of ECDSA/Schnorr signatures and mandatory adoption of=20 > NIST-standardized post-quantum algorithms, it ensures Bitcoin's=20 > survival against quantum attacks while minimizing disruption to=20 > existing infrastructure. > > =3D=3D MOTIVATION =3D=3D > *Quantum Threat Assessment* > - PUBLIC KEY EXPOSURE: 25% of Bitcoin's UTXO set (~$150B as of 2025)=20 > is vulnerable to Shor's algorithm due to exposed public keys (P2PK,=20 > reused addresses) > - ALGORITHMIC ACCELERATION: Google's 2024 trapped-ion breakthrough=20 > demonstrated 99.99% gate fidelity with 50 logical qubits - sufficient=20 > to break 256-bit ECDSA in <8 hours > - STEALTH ATTACK VECTORS: Quantum adversaries could precompute keys=20 > and execute timed thefts during mempool propagation > > *Fundamental ECDSA Vulnerability* > ECDSA security relies on the Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithm Problem=20 > (ECDLP). Shor's quantum algorithm solves it in O((log n)=C2=B3) time: > 1. For secp256k1: n =E2=89=88 2=C2=B2=E2=81=B5=E2=81=B6 > 2. Classical security: 128-bit > 3. Quantum security: 0-bit (broken by Shor) > 4. Critical exposure: Any public key revealed becomes immediately=20 > vulnerable > > *Consequences of Inaction* > - WEALTH DESTRUCTION: Single theft event could permanently erode trust > - COORDINATION TRAP: Delayed action risks chaotic emergency hard forks > - SYSTEMIC COLLAPSE: Quantum break would invalidate Bitcoin's security=20 > model > > =3D=3D SPECIFICATION =3D=3D > *Phase 1: QR Adoption (0-2 years)* > - Soft-fork activation of QR witness programs (SegWit v3+) > - New outputs must use OP_CHECKSIG_PQ > - Classical scripts marked as deprecated > > *Phase 2: Legacy Deprecation (5 years)* > - Creating new classical UTXOs becomes non-standard > - Wallets default to QR outputs with warnings for classical sends > - Economic incentive: QR transactions get priority mempool treatment > > *Phase 3: Classical Sunset (Block 1,327,121 ~8 years)* > - Consensus-enforced rejection of classical script spends > - Frozen UTXOs permanently unspendable (supply reduction) > - Emergency override: 95% miner vote can delay by 52-week increments > > *Phase 4: Recovery Mechanism (Optional)* > - ZK-proof system for reclaiming frozen funds via: > =C2=A0 =E2=80=A2 Proof of BIP-39 seed knowledge > =C2=A0 =E2=80=A2 Time-locked quantum-resistant scripts > - Requires separate BIP after 3+ years cryptanalysis > > =3D=3D RATIONALE =3D=3D > *Why Phased Approach?* > - MARKET CERTAINTY: Fixed timeline eliminates "wait-and-see" stagnation > - PROGRESSIVE PRESSURE: Gradual restrictions avoid shock transitions > - SUNK COST PRINCIPLE: Users ignoring 3+ years of warnings assume=20 > responsibility > > *Why Freeze Legacy UTXOs?* > - Prevents quantum arms race for exposed coins > - Preserves Bitcoin's "lost coins" scarcity principle > - Avoids centralized redistribution committees > - Eliminates moral hazard of rewarding late migrators > - Reduces quantum attack surface > > *Algorithm Choice: SPHINCS+-SHAKE256f (SLH-DSA-SHAKE-256f)* > SECURITY PARAMETERS: > =C2=A0 n: 256 > =C2=A0 Hash: SHAKE256 > =C2=A0 Classical Security: 2=C2=B2=E2=81=B5=E2=81=B6 > =C2=A0 Quantum Security: 2=C2=B9=C2=B2=E2=81=B8 > =C2=A0 Private Key: 128 bytes > =C2=A0 Public Key: 64 bytes > =C2=A0 Signature: 49,856 bytes > > QUANTUM ATTACK RESISTANCE: > | Attack Type =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 | Standard Bitcoin | This Syste= m =C2=A0 | Security=20 > Factor | > |---------------------|------------------|---------------|---------------= --| > | Shor's Algorithm =C2=A0 =C2=A0| Broken =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2= =A0 | Not applicable| =E2=88=9E =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 | > | Grover's Algorithm =C2=A0| O(2=C2=B9=C2=B2=E2=81=B8) =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2= =A0 =C2=A0 | O(2=E2=81=B5=C2=B9=C2=B2) =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0| 2=C2=B3=E2=81= =B8=E2=81=B4 advantage =C2=A0| > | Collision Search =C2=A0 =C2=A0| O(2=E2=81=B8=E2=81=B5) =C2=A0 =C2=A0 = =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0| O(2=E2=81=B8=E2=81=B5) =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 | Equival= ent =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0| > > KEY SECURITY (SK 128 bytes): > - Private key entropy: 1024 bits (2=C2=B9=E2=81=B0=C2=B2=E2=81=B4 possibi= lities) > - Quantum brute-force: =E2=88=9A(2=C2=B9=E2=81=B0=C2=B2=E2=81=B4) =3D 2= =E2=81=B5=C2=B9=C2=B2 =E2=89=88 10=C2=B9=E2=81=B5=E2=81=B4 operations > - Time required at 1 quintillion ops/sec (10=C2=B9=E2=81=B8): 10=C2=B9=C2= =B3=E2=81=B6 seconds =E2=89=88 3 =C3=97=20 > 10=C2=B9=C2=B2=E2=81=B8 years > > SEED SECURITY (SEED 96 bytes): > - Possible seeds: 2=E2=81=B7=E2=81=B6=E2=81=B8 =E2=89=88 10=C2=B2=C2=B3= =C2=B9 > - Quantum brute-force: =E2=88=9A(2=E2=81=B7=E2=81=B6=E2=81=B8) =3D 2=C2= =B3=E2=81=B8=E2=81=B4 =E2=89=88 10=C2=B9=C2=B9=E2=81=B5 operations > - Time required at 1 billion ops/sec: 10=C2=B9=E2=81=B0=E2=81=B6 seconds = =E2=89=88 3 =C3=97 10=E2=81=B9=E2=81=B8 years > > INFORMATION THEORETIC ADVANTAGES: > - Each signature reveals 4 bits of private key material > - After 20 signatures: > =C2=A0 =E2=80=A2 ECDSA: Private key fully compromised > =C2=A0 =E2=80=A2 SPHINCS+: 80 bits revealed (7.81% of key) > =C2=A0 =E2=80=A2 Security margin remains: 944 bits (92.19%) > > =3D=3D BACKWARD COMPATIBILITY =3D=3D > Phase | Legacy Wallets =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 | QR Wallets > ------|---------------------|------------------------ > 1 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 | Full functionality =C2=A0| Can receive/send both types > 2 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 | Can only send to QR | Full functionality > 3+ =C2=A0 =C2=A0| Frozen funds =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0| Only QR trans= actions valid > > =3D=3D DEPLOYMENT =3D=3D > Activation Mechanism: > - Speedy Trial (BIP-8) with 18-month timeout > - 90% miner signaling threshold > > Monitoring: > - QR adoption metrics published quarterly > - Sunset delay requires proof of: > =C2=A0 =E2=80=A2 <70% exchange/wallet adoption > =C2=A0 =E2=80=A2 Fundamental flaws in NIST PQC standards > > =3D=3D STAKEHOLDER IMPACT =3D=3D > Group =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 | Action Required =C2=A0 =C2=A0 = =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 | Timeline > ----------------|-------------------------------|------------------- > Miners =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0| Upgrade nodes for QR rules =C2= =A0 =C2=A0| Phase 1 activation > Exchanges =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 | Implement QR withdrawals =C2=A0 =C2=A0 |= Within 18 months of=20 > Phase 1 > Hardware Wallets| Firmware updates for QR sigs | Before Phase 2 > Light Clients =C2=A0 | SPV proofs for QR scripts =C2=A0 =C2=A0| Phase 3 r= eadiness > > =3D=3D REFERENCES =3D=3D > - SPHINCS+ Implementation:=20 > https://github.com/bitcoin-foundation/Quantum-Resistant-Bitcoin > - (FIPS 205)=C2=A0SLH-DSA:=20 > https://nvlpubs.nist.gov/nistpubs/FIPS/NIST.FIPS.205.pdf > - Schnorr Signatures: BIP-0340 > > =3D=3D COPYRIGHT =3D=3D > MIT License > > --- > > > This BIP presents an alternative quantum-resistant migration approach,=20 > primarily distinguished by its extended transition timeline to=20 > facilitate more comprehensive ecosystem adaptation. > > Key features: > - Includes reference implementation of SPHINCS+-SHAKE256f=20 > (SLH-DSA-SHAKE-256f) > - Provides comparative analysis against Bitcoin's current ECDSA scheme > - Detailed technical specifications: > https://github.com/bitcoin-foundation/Quantum-Resistant-Bitcoin > > Formatting note: This BIP draft prioritizes technical accuracy over=20 > visual polish.=C2=A0After incorporating feedback from this discussion, th= e=20 > final version will be published to GitHub with proper Markdown formatting= . > > Feedback welcome from wallet developers, exchanges, miners, and=20 > security researchers. > --=20 > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google=20 > Groups "Bitcoin Development Mailing List" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send=20 > an email to bitcoindev+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com. > To view this discussion visit=20 > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/bitcoindev/4d6ecde7-e959-4e6c-a0aa-867a= f8577151n%40googlegroups.com=20 > . --=20 You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "= Bitcoin Development Mailing List" group. 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