From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Return-Path: Received: from smtp1.linuxfoundation.org (smtp1.linux-foundation.org [172.17.192.35]) by mail.linuxfoundation.org (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 57436B2E for ; Thu, 3 Mar 2016 01:06:28 +0000 (UTC) X-Greylist: whitelisted by SQLgrey-1.7.6 Received: from mail-qg0-f44.google.com (mail-qg0-f44.google.com [209.85.192.44]) by smtp1.linuxfoundation.org (Postfix) with ESMTPS id E43DB123 for ; Thu, 3 Mar 2016 01:06:27 +0000 (UTC) Received: by mail-qg0-f44.google.com with SMTP id t4so5876500qge.0 for ; Wed, 02 Mar 2016 17:06:27 -0800 (PST) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=gmail.com; s=20120113; h=subject:to:references:cc:from:message-id:date:user-agent :mime-version:in-reply-to:content-transfer-encoding; bh=xeMTC9fJ2huK7gCxdJVaPQNv9ScseUtr4qSTN+l+JPI=; b=HQeZ5L5Y+PwCg/IFUeayzanyvdymlmxCifWBWtsN3nswDQCtD+KS2Y0HBrTFprt4Nc wQDoXpKZhCGYjXSt8AwWmCb233J6muBshCaWY7ruwcLu5z1Jn/3KI8EQaYIeGM3IvF4N 1st/+6Nj4G6J0K2ymBAxVXN7nNFXv7f73AMLMEs9kMZzzm5TmoaUlKRfvoHP+hVtl4gG KtYa9gf9cBnBjfEOrFt/L7jROuNPMLJxEWQ0JUFMUg2Geu7hUHmh9c5Fdufvf02ftc0Q hq26Ve//9ROvKwMX/Fgczl0IUxtSKFkc4gCCmDXA5l/jtjNKOg0s5fj39jlYgWSiSDsq Flew== X-Google-DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=1e100.net; s=20130820; h=x-gm-message-state:subject:to:references:cc:from:message-id:date :user-agent:mime-version:in-reply-to:content-transfer-encoding; bh=xeMTC9fJ2huK7gCxdJVaPQNv9ScseUtr4qSTN+l+JPI=; b=JU2Bf174+HmT46mo1chY+ACqX94ZjhTfWm9le5SiVxJv3NNxLEiUJ71/fQRtlCVYSr xAKoF+iOht/IzUYENforA4kTneqMgnCNZew7nIW6mKlCvij81X2WH6bpA3IUPHAqpPqt HmF0paHXJMAZjZ/JNPKLXdjeUcW0kgzuWR2dkeciq4BHTXKKZK/HCTVjJqm8mhrhHoV+ 7Tu+zuT/i+09iKF97Y2tBKWTCy5ms6hhEhfSj7fveXTRsACFnwtnEuhG5cf8sYPfbIr6 TyEf8QRo4a79h9J0wyYaF6cLbFzIeQSPBqcAg8N6pZ6h/BYOmHPwY3jyMIfGlVjwLDBO 3Ftg== X-Gm-Message-State: AD7BkJI1GaQW+MiKhi2wl+jnQOnMS7rkb/2jJwTN64ewNJ7cTCjfwNZVw61N/JfdlI7XHQ== X-Received: by 10.140.28.162 with SMTP id 31mr37369543qgz.81.1456967187138; Wed, 02 Mar 2016 17:06:27 -0800 (PST) Received: from [192.168.1.105] (ool-4575fa8d.dyn.optonline.net. [69.117.250.141]) by smtp.googlemail.com with ESMTPSA id e79sm4849802qkj.2.2016.03.02.17.06.25 (version=TLSv1/SSLv3 cipher=OTHER); Wed, 02 Mar 2016 17:06:26 -0800 (PST) To: Gregory Maxwell , "David A. Harding" References: <201603021456.15820.luke@dashjr.org> <20160302171418.GA5312@localhost.localdomain> From: Paul Sztorc Message-ID: <56D78E13.2050403@gmail.com> Date: Wed, 2 Mar 2016 20:06:27 -0500 User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 6.3; WOW64; rv:38.0) Gecko/20100101 Thunderbird/38.6.0 MIME-Version: 1.0 In-Reply-To: Content-Type: text/plain; charset=windows-1252 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Spam-Status: No, score=-2.7 required=5.0 tests=BAYES_00,DKIM_SIGNED, DKIM_VALID, DKIM_VALID_AU, FREEMAIL_FROM, RCVD_IN_DNSWL_LOW autolearn=ham version=3.3.1 X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 3.3.1 (2010-03-16) on smtp1.linux-foundation.org X-Mailman-Approved-At: Thu, 03 Mar 2016 14:55:54 +0000 Cc: Bitcoin Dev Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Hardfork to fix difficulty drop algorithm X-BeenThere: bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.12 Precedence: list List-Id: Bitcoin Development Discussion List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Mar 2016 01:06:28 -0000 On 3/2/2016 12:53 PM, Gregory Maxwell via bitcoin-dev wrote: > What you are proposing makes sense only if it was believed that a very > large difficulty drop would be very likely. > > This appears to be almost certainly untrue-- consider-- look how long > ago since hashrate was 50% of what it is now, or 25% of what it is > now-- this is strong evidence that supermajority of the hashrate is > equipment with state of the art power efficiency. I don't understand the relevance of this. In my view, we would prefer miners to invest in hardware just a mere 2016 blocks away from the halving. Instead, they've made them too soon. Assuming that miners are already located in low-power-cost areas, the difficulty will be quickly rising to compensate for "state of the art power efficiency". So it will have canceled out by July. If anything, the more efficient miners become today, the bigger our potential problem in July, because chip-manufacturers may have used up all of the easy efficiency-increasing moves, such that investments do not take place in June. Paul