From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Return-Path: Received: from smtp2.osuosl.org (smtp2.osuosl.org [IPv6:2605:bc80:3010::133]) by lists.linuxfoundation.org (Postfix) with ESMTP id 9C06AC0001 for ; Tue, 18 May 2021 12:16:12 +0000 (UTC) Received: from localhost (localhost [127.0.0.1]) by smtp2.osuosl.org (Postfix) with ESMTP id 9853640281 for ; Tue, 18 May 2021 12:16:12 +0000 (UTC) X-Virus-Scanned: amavisd-new at osuosl.org X-Spam-Flag: NO X-Spam-Score: -0.4 X-Spam-Level: X-Spam-Status: No, score=-0.4 tagged_above=-999 required=5 tests=[BAYES_20=-0.001, DKIM_SIGNED=0.1, DKIM_VALID=-0.1, DKIM_VALID_AU=-0.1, DKIM_VALID_EF=-0.1, FREEMAIL_FROM=0.001, FROM_LOCAL_NOVOWEL=0.5, RCVD_IN_DNSWL_LOW=-0.7, RCVD_IN_MSPIKE_H3=0.001, RCVD_IN_MSPIKE_WL=0.001, SPF_HELO_PASS=-0.001, SPF_PASS=-0.001] autolearn=ham autolearn_force=no Authentication-Results: smtp2.osuosl.org (amavisd-new); dkim=pass (1024-bit key) header.d=protonmail.com Received: from smtp2.osuosl.org ([127.0.0.1]) by localhost (smtp2.osuosl.org [127.0.0.1]) (amavisd-new, port 10024) with ESMTP id qi7LPn7mqpTf for ; Tue, 18 May 2021 12:16:08 +0000 (UTC) X-Greylist: domain auto-whitelisted by SQLgrey-1.8.0 Received: from mail-40132.protonmail.ch (mail-40132.protonmail.ch [185.70.40.132]) by smtp2.osuosl.org (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 964CF40246 for ; Tue, 18 May 2021 12:16:08 +0000 (UTC) Date: Tue, 18 May 2021 12:15:58 +0000 DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=protonmail.com; s=protonmail; t=1621340165; bh=Qoyy8ZxVUD/+rnAlAcDJ6EPyMePlTXiIQXOrSaYJNWc=; h=Date:To:From:Cc:Reply-To:Subject:In-Reply-To:References:From; b=SVV05SelgAIHhO4MOtrYqgt0j0AS04AKVi9+9J+9EKg+Oo13ZXEd4XbUPxd6jHLWb ArGAgdhIhfrfBjwLk2+rta3U5Wq7u1u0YaEEPQdZa92M7IiqPR2VCeEn7X4sQOQmyD S3VHAuNHWvQ5M2mlI/DnV3WM5WIC1IDW7fdZTvUQ= To: Prayank From: ZmnSCPxj Reply-To: ZmnSCPxj Message-ID: <6vNu7L3ixnPdpuxQFOusZYDQK8uuuylD5XecO8WXi386DtXN5LsNS-lHm_cScC5QBpRXe8Y7Ab0QWishbVMKPW75gqJHS69PSlqY9iZEQBE=@protonmail.com> In-Reply-To: References: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Cc: Bitcoin Protocol Discussion Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Prediction Markets and Bitcoin X-BeenThere: bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.15 Precedence: list List-Id: Bitcoin Protocol Discussion List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 18 May 2021 12:16:12 -0000 Good morning Prayank, > > >=C2=A0Of course the people ultimately funding the development must impos= e what direction that development goes to, after all, it is their money tha= t is being modified. Thus development must follow the market. > > Disagree.=C2=A0 > > 1.A position in a futures market about possible outcomes of an event is n= ot equivalent to funding Bitcoin development. > > 2.People or organizations funding Bitcoin developers or projects can alwa= ys have some opinion, influence and disagreements. They can never impose or= force something at least in Bitcoin protocol. Sorry for the late reply. I expect that many Bitcoin developers have a nontrivial amount of their lif= e savings in Bitcoin. Any change in Bitcoin price represents a significant change in the value of= these life savings. A position in a futures market represents a prediction by the one taking th= e position that they expect the price of Bitcoin to change in a particular = direction, possibly based on some condition, including the direction where = development goes. This signal then represents an implicit threat ("if Bitcoin goes against th= is position, I will liquidate my Bitcoin and drop the Bitcoin price") which= can be sufficient to "fund" or "de-fund" developers who have a significant= stake in Bitcoin. > I don't think futures market in this case will be able to aggregate and r= eflect all available information so everything mentioned above has its own = importance which should be considered. Maybe I missed few things. *Some* information > *No* information > > 3.Incorrect usage of futures markets in Bitcoin and other issues: Well, yes, this is the hard part, sigh. Regards, ZmnSCPxj