From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Received: from sog-mx-4.v43.ch3.sourceforge.com ([172.29.43.194] helo=mx.sourceforge.net) by sfs-ml-2.v29.ch3.sourceforge.com with esmtp (Exim 4.76) (envelope-from ) id 1YrrVt-0004TI-LW for bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net; Mon, 11 May 2015 17:29:09 +0000 Received-SPF: pass (sog-mx-4.v43.ch3.sourceforge.com: domain of gmail.com designates 209.85.217.178 as permitted sender) client-ip=209.85.217.178; envelope-from=gavinandresen@gmail.com; helo=mail-lb0-f178.google.com; Received: from mail-lb0-f178.google.com ([209.85.217.178]) by sog-mx-4.v43.ch3.sourceforge.com with esmtps (TLSv1:RC4-SHA:128) (Exim 4.76) id 1YrrVs-0001js-JS for bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net; Mon, 11 May 2015 17:29:09 +0000 Received: by lbbzk7 with SMTP id zk7so99158572lbb.0 for ; Mon, 11 May 2015 10:29:02 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Received: by 10.152.4.72 with SMTP id i8mr9116671lai.32.1431365342191; Mon, 11 May 2015 10:29:02 -0700 (PDT) Received: by 10.25.90.75 with HTTP; Mon, 11 May 2015 10:29:02 -0700 (PDT) In-Reply-To: References: <5550D8BE.6070207@electrum.org> Date: Mon, 11 May 2015 13:29:02 -0400 Message-ID: From: Gavin Andresen To: insecurity@national.shitposting.agency Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary=089e01494248c3e8a50515d1b6ab X-Spam-Score: -0.6 (/) X-Spam-Report: Spam Filtering performed by mx.sourceforge.net. See http://spamassassin.org/tag/ for more details. -1.5 SPF_CHECK_PASS SPF reports sender host as permitted sender for sender-domain 0.0 FREEMAIL_FROM Sender email is commonly abused enduser mail provider (gavinandresen[at]gmail.com) -0.0 SPF_PASS SPF: sender matches SPF record 1.0 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message -0.1 DKIM_VALID_AU Message has a valid DKIM or DK signature from author's domain 0.1 DKIM_SIGNED Message has a DKIM or DK signature, not necessarily valid -0.1 DKIM_VALID Message has at least one valid DKIM or DK signature X-Headers-End: 1YrrVs-0001js-JS Cc: Bitcoin Dev Subject: Re: [Bitcoin-development] Long-term mining incentives X-BeenThere: bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.9 Precedence: list List-Id: List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 11 May 2015 17:29:09 -0000 --089e01494248c3e8a50515d1b6ab Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 I think long-term the chain will not be secured purely by proof-of-work. I think when the Bitcoin network was tiny running solely on people's home computers proof-of-work was the right way to secure the chain, and the only fair way to both secure the chain and distribute the coins. See https://gist.github.com/gavinandresen/630d4a6c24ac6144482a for some half-baked thoughts along those lines. I don't think proof-of-work is the last word in distributed consensus (I also don't think any alternatives are anywhere near ready to deploy, but they might be in ten years). I also think it is premature to worry about what will happen in twenty or thirty years when the block subsidy is insignificant. A lot will happen in the next twenty years. I could spin a vision of what will secure the chain in twenty years, but I'd put a low probability on that vision actually turning out to be correct. That is why I keep saying Bitcoin is an experiment. But I also believe that the incentives are correct, and there are a lot of very motivated, smart, hard-working people who will make it work. When you're talking about trying to predict what will happen decades from now, I think that is the best you can (honestly) do. -- -- Gavin Andresen --089e01494248c3e8a50515d1b6ab Content-Type: text/html; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
I think long-term the chain wil= l not be secured purely by proof-of-work. I think when the Bitcoin network = was tiny running solely on people's home computers proof-of-work was th= e right way to secure the chain, and the only fair way to both secure the c= hain and distribute the coins.

See=C2=A0https://gist.github.com/gavinandresen/630d4a6= c24ac6144482a =C2=A0for some half-baked thoughts along those lines. I d= on't think proof-of-work is the last word in distributed consensus (I a= lso don't think any alternatives are anywhere near ready to deploy, but= they might be in ten years).

I also think it is premature to worry about what wi= ll happen in twenty or thirty years when the block subsidy is insignificant= . A lot will happen in the next twenty years. I could spin a vision of what= will secure the chain in twenty years, but I'd put a low probability o= n that vision actually turning out to be correct.

That is why I keep saying B= itcoin is an experiment. But I also believe that the incentives are correct= , and there are a lot of very motivated, smart, hard-working people who wil= l make it work. When you're talking about trying to predict what will h= appen decades from now, I think that is the best you can (honestly) do.

--
--
Ga= vin Andresen
--089e01494248c3e8a50515d1b6ab--