From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Received: from sog-mx-1.v43.ch3.sourceforge.com ([172.29.43.191] helo=mx.sourceforge.net) by sfs-ml-3.v29.ch3.sourceforge.com with esmtp (Exim 4.76) (envelope-from ) id 1Xj7It-0008Ij-8r for bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net; Tue, 28 Oct 2014 13:59:19 +0000 Received-SPF: pass (sog-mx-1.v43.ch3.sourceforge.com: domain of gmail.com designates 209.85.213.47 as permitted sender) client-ip=209.85.213.47; envelope-from=gavinandresen@gmail.com; helo=mail-yh0-f47.google.com; Received: from mail-yh0-f47.google.com ([209.85.213.47]) by sog-mx-1.v43.ch3.sourceforge.com with esmtps (TLSv1:RC4-SHA:128) (Exim 4.76) id 1Xj7Ir-0002fU-AL for bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net; Tue, 28 Oct 2014 13:59:19 +0000 Received: by mail-yh0-f47.google.com with SMTP id i57so335139yha.20 for ; Tue, 28 Oct 2014 06:59:12 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Received: by 10.236.17.197 with SMTP id j45mr2993743yhj.49.1414504751915; Tue, 28 Oct 2014 06:59:11 -0700 (PDT) Received: by 10.170.133.82 with HTTP; Tue, 28 Oct 2014 06:59:11 -0700 (PDT) In-Reply-To: References: Date: Tue, 28 Oct 2014 09:59:11 -0400 Message-ID: From: Gavin Andresen To: Alex Morcos Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary=047d7b603c5845699405067c0d28 X-Spam-Score: -0.6 (/) X-Spam-Report: Spam Filtering performed by mx.sourceforge.net. See http://spamassassin.org/tag/ for more details. -1.5 SPF_CHECK_PASS SPF reports sender host as permitted sender for sender-domain 0.0 FREEMAIL_FROM Sender email is commonly abused enduser mail provider (gavinandresen[at]gmail.com) -0.0 SPF_PASS SPF: sender matches SPF record 1.0 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message -0.1 DKIM_VALID_AU Message has a valid DKIM or DK signature from author's domain 0.1 DKIM_SIGNED Message has a DKIM or DK signature, not necessarily valid -0.1 DKIM_VALID Message has at least one valid DKIM or DK signature X-Headers-End: 1Xj7Ir-0002fU-AL Cc: Bitcoin Dev Subject: Re: [Bitcoin-development] Reworking the policy estimation code (fee estimates) X-BeenThere: bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.9 Precedence: list List-Id: List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 28 Oct 2014 13:59:19 -0000 --047d7b603c5845699405067c0d28 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 I think Alex's approach is better; I don't think we can know how much better until we have a functioning fee market. We don't have a functioning fee market now, because fees are hard-coded. So we get "pay the hard-coded fee and you'll get confirmed in one or two or three blocks, depending on which miners mine the next three blocks and what time of day it is." git HEAD code says you need a fee of 10,0000 satoshis/kb to be pretty sure you'll get confirmed in the next block. That looks about right with Alex's real-world data (if we take "90% chance" as 'pretty sure you'll get confirmed'): Fee rate 100000 Avg blocks to confirm 1.09 NumBlocks:% confirmed 1: 0.901 2: 1.0 3: 1.0 My only concern with Alex's code is that it takes much longer to get 'primed' -- Alex, if I started with no data about fees, how long would it take to be able to get enough data for a reasonable estimate of "what is the least I can pay and still be 90% sure I get confirmed in 20 blocks" ? Hours? Days? Weeks? -- -- Gavin Andresen --047d7b603c5845699405067c0d28 Content-Type: text/html; charset=ISO-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
I think Alex's approach is = better; I don't think we can know how much better until we have a funct= ioning fee market.

We don't have a functioning fee market now, because fees a= re hard-coded. So we get "pay the hard-coded fee and you'll get co= nfirmed in one or two or three blocks, depending on which miners mine the n= ext three blocks and what time of day it is."

git HEAD code says you need a = fee of 10,0000 satoshis/kb to be pretty sure you'll get confirmed in th= e next block. That looks about right with Alex's real-world data (if we= take "90% chance" as 'pretty sure you'll get confirmed&#= 39;):

=
Fee rate 100000 Avg blocks to confirm 1.09 NumBlocks:= % confirmed 1: 0.901 2: 1.0 =A0 3: 1.0

My onl= y concern with Alex's code is that it takes much longer to get 'pri= med' -- Alex, if I started with no data about fees, how long would it t= ake to be able to get enough data for a reasonable estimate of "what i= s the least I can pay and still be 90% sure I get confirmed in 20 blocks&qu= ot; ? Hours? Days? Weeks?

--
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Gavi= n Andresen
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