Re: [Bitcoin-development] Fwd: death by halving

["Ferdinando M. Ametrano" <ferdinando.ametrano@gmail.com>]

[-- Attachment #1: Type: text/plain, Size: 1597 bytes --]

> > In november 2008 bitcoin was a much younger ecosystem,
>
> Or very old, indeed, if you are using unsigned arithmetic. [...]
>
:-) I meant 2012, of course, but loved your wit


> > and the halving happened during a quite stable positive price trend
>
> Hardly,
>
>
> http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2012-10-01zeg2012-12-01ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv


indeed!
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2012-08-01zeg2013-02-01ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv


> There is a lot more complexity to the system than the subsidy schedule.
>
who said the contrary?

This thread is, in my opinion, a waste of time.
>
it might be, I have some free time right now...

many people have performed planning around the current
> behaviour. The current behaviour has also not shown itself to be
> problematic (and we've actually experienced its largest effect already
> without incident), and there are arguable benefits like encouraging
> investment in mining infrastructure.
>

I would love a proper rebuttal of a basic economic argument. If increased
competition will push mining revenues below 200% of operational costs, then
the halving will suddenly switch off many non profitable mining resources.
As of now the cost per block is probably already about 100USD, probably in
the 50-150USD.
Dismissed mining resources might even become cheaply available for
malevolent agents considering a 51% attack. Moreover the timing would be
perfect for the burst of any existing cloud hashing Ponzi scheme.
From a strict economic point of view allowing the halving jump is looking
for trouble. To each his own.

[-- Attachment #2: Type: text/html, Size: 3141 bytes --]