If there's any cost to non-SPV mining, and the chance that an incoming block contains only valid transactions is very high, isn't there still an incentive to make this timeout longer and longer?
Yes. If it's rare enough, then skipping transaction validation saves more cost than the expected cost of mining atop an invalid block. ... but if everyone follows that logic, the chance is no longer rare.
SPV-mining is to prevent hashing hardware from having to waste power when it isn't needed.
It may be less of a problem if (when?) electricity costs dominate hardware capital costs.Oh. This is a different explanation than Peter Todd's I linked to above, which claimed it was network latency in receiving transactions.