He also said that the equation for miners has many variables, as it
should.

He only said that AFTER I called him on his bullshit.

Before that he wrote it like there is 100% certainty that only the party producing big blocks is punished:

"That orphan rate increase will go to whoever is producing the 20MB blocks, NOT you."

There is no disadvantage if the network speed is the same
between the miners.

Which is exactly not the situation they were discussing. This assumption is not reasonable.