As of today, the max block size would be 1,135KB.
Looking forward and using the last year's growth rate as a model:
This shows the max block size one year from now would be 2,064KB, if Block75 activated today.
Of course, this is just an estimate, but even accounting for a substantial increase in transactions in the last quarter of 2017 and changes brought about by SegWit (hopefully) activating, Block75 alters the max size in such a way that allows for growth, keeps blocks as small as possible, *and* maintains transaction fees at a level similar to May/June 2016.
If anyone has an alternate way to model future behavior, please run it through the Block75 algorithm.
Every 2016 blocks, do this:new max blocksize = x + (x * (AVERAGE_CAPACITY - TARGET_CAPACITY))
TARGET_CAPACITY = 0.75 //Block75's target of keeping blocks 75% full
AVERAGE_CAPACITY = average percentage full of the last 2016 blocks, as a decimal
x = current max block size
Thanks,
- t.k.