I see value in lowering the block size or leaving it where it is. We expect to run out of space, and I think it's a good idea to prepare for that, rather than avoid it. When we run out of space and the block size is low, we will see problems. If we raise the block size, we will NOT see these problems until bitcoin is bigger and more important and the pressure is higher.
Someone mentioned that when the backlog grows faster than it shrinks, that is a real problem. I don't think it is. It is a problem for those who don't wait for even one confirmation, but backlogs in the past have already started training users to wait for at least one confirmation, or go off-chain. I am comfortable leaving those zero-conf people in a little bit of trouble. Everyone else can double-spend (perhaps that's not as easy as it should be in bitcoin core) and use a higher fee, thus competing for block space. Yes, $5 transactions suck, but $0.15 is not so bad and about twice the average right now.
Meanwhile, the higher fees everyone starts feeling like paying, along with the visibility of the problems caused by full-blocks, will provide excellent justification and motivation for increasing the limit. My favorite thing to do is to have a solution ready for a problem I expect to see, see the problem (so I can measure things about it) and then implement the solution.