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From: Dave Scotese <dscotese@litmocracy.com>
To: bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org
Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] bitcoin-dev Digest, Vol 2, Issue 95
Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2015 09:32:34 -0700	[thread overview]
Message-ID: <CAGLBAhe8-u+Tx25Q9nq8DYFvdmDes3GaAuOOQrjdS+Q=1pjwcg@mail.gmail.com> (raw)

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> Alternatively I think instead of displaying a meaningless number we ought
> to go by a percentage (the double spend improbability) and go by
> 'confidence'.


That is a great idea, and not too hard to implement.  A bit of code can
determine over the last N blocks, how many blocks that were at the current
depth of the present transaction were orphaned and divide that by the total
number of blocks solved (orphaned or not) while those N blocks were
solved.  That's the historical number (H), and then the "51% attack" number
(A) can make an explicit assumptions like "Assuming a bad actor has 51% of
the hashing power for 24 hours starting right now, the block holding this
transaction has an X% chance of being orphaned."  Report "# confirmations"
as "99.44% confidence" using [100% - max(H,A)].

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                 reply	other threads:[~2015-07-24 16:32 UTC|newest]

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