From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Received: from sog-mx-2.v43.ch3.sourceforge.com ([172.29.43.192] helo=mx.sourceforge.net) by sfs-ml-2.v29.ch3.sourceforge.com with esmtp (Exim 4.76) (envelope-from ) id 1Xi68U-00027z-Bi for bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net; Sat, 25 Oct 2014 18:32:22 +0000 Received-SPF: pass (sog-mx-2.v43.ch3.sourceforge.com: domain of bitpay.com designates 209.85.213.171 as permitted sender) client-ip=209.85.213.171; envelope-from=jgarzik@bitpay.com; helo=mail-ig0-f171.google.com; Received: from mail-ig0-f171.google.com ([209.85.213.171]) by sog-mx-2.v43.ch3.sourceforge.com with esmtps (TLSv1:RC4-SHA:128) (Exim 4.76) id 1Xi68T-0004cq-D3 for bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net; Sat, 25 Oct 2014 18:32:22 +0000 Received: by mail-ig0-f171.google.com with SMTP id l13so2803209iga.4 for ; Sat, 25 Oct 2014 11:32:16 -0700 (PDT) X-Google-DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=1e100.net; s=20130820; h=x-gm-message-state:mime-version:in-reply-to:references:from:date :message-id:subject:to:cc:content-type; bh=iI0LkIKgQw8kPb3jRGc45psZOB4dtM+ThaqhYcBkG3U=; b=IG3AVrjVxaEe5AEf65/+0y6L6TQ3YlbDkI1FPgzq2uydBq1XC5wgi7NGNQz14ZdtJH 30RM1agE+MXwGsl1akOmXHjcSOs9l3BUucB1raiulAr+b8p2/YuYz+FWbwW3NC6/MWyr TX/cTsYf37M84iqfVY9FxOSB2TZ3j4hKsGpL8JLbJ+NclWC+RR+h8MFiZjCS1MTbrhns VtBnaOCZ6e1MpOLhetSDjVuUdYDbycXOL7a3qxuHt5vw2xu1lN27prVsHuCE+25MrKdP tUNDO27a3Y47pqAHdoFLocoN+71bE+jI10wxYgPPtJ9M4mEyhpDoQsRfyWjrzOCqaTdl a9rA== X-Gm-Message-State: ALoCoQlrjwOHwj2WU+/3T1eWDMF7iExNlLLciyr2ObZ4MyJFqusExuPGHhunW2I48ECnt24QhngM X-Received: by 10.50.3.4 with SMTP id 4mr11656534igy.22.1414261935987; Sat, 25 Oct 2014 11:32:15 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 Received: by 10.107.156.193 with HTTP; Sat, 25 Oct 2014 11:31:55 -0700 (PDT) In-Reply-To: References: From: Jeff Garzik Date: Sat, 25 Oct 2014 14:31:55 -0400 Message-ID: To: Alex Mizrahi Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 X-Spam-Score: -1.6 (-) X-Spam-Report: Spam Filtering performed by mx.sourceforge.net. See http://spamassassin.org/tag/ for more details. -1.5 SPF_CHECK_PASS SPF reports sender host as permitted sender for sender-domain -0.0 SPF_PASS SPF: sender matches SPF record -0.1 DKIM_VALID_AU Message has a valid DKIM or DK signature from author's domain 0.1 DKIM_SIGNED Message has a DKIM or DK signature, not necessarily valid -0.1 DKIM_VALID Message has at least one valid DKIM or DK signature X-Headers-End: 1Xi68T-0004cq-D3 Cc: Bitcoin Dev Subject: Re: [Bitcoin-development] death by halving X-BeenThere: bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.9 Precedence: list List-Id: List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 25 Oct 2014 18:32:22 -0000 It is an overly-simplistic miner model to assume altruism is necessary. The hashpower market is maturing in the direction of financial instruments, where the owner of the hashpower is not necessarily the one receiving income. These are becoming tradeable instruments, and derivatives and hedging are built on top of that. Risk is hedged at each layer. Market players also forge agreements with miners, and receive -negative- value if hashpower is simply shut down. Simplistic models cannot predict what hashpower does in the face of business-to-business medium- and long-term contracts. On Sat, Oct 25, 2014 at 2:22 PM, Alex Mizrahi wrote: > >> >> "Flag day" herd behavior like this is unlikely for well informed and >> well prepared market participants. > > > It is simply rational to turn your mining device off until difficulty > adjusts. > Keeping mining for 2+ weeks when it costs you money is an altruistic > behavior, we shouldn't rely on this. > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ > > _______________________________________________ > Bitcoin-development mailing list > Bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net > https://lists.sourceforge.net/lists/listinfo/bitcoin-development > -- Jeff Garzik Bitcoin core developer and open source evangelist BitPay, Inc. https://bitpay.com/