From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Return-Path: Received: from smtp1.linuxfoundation.org (smtp1.linux-foundation.org [172.17.192.35]) by mail.linuxfoundation.org (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 3D4E5E46 for ; Mon, 12 Feb 2018 17:23:37 +0000 (UTC) X-Greylist: whitelisted by SQLgrey-1.7.6 Received: from mail-io0-f181.google.com (mail-io0-f181.google.com [209.85.223.181]) by smtp1.linuxfoundation.org (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 4236B134 for ; Mon, 12 Feb 2018 17:23:36 +0000 (UTC) Received: by mail-io0-f181.google.com with SMTP id m11so18064690iob.2 for ; Mon, 12 Feb 2018 09:23:36 -0800 (PST) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=gmail.com; s=20161025; h=mime-version:in-reply-to:references:from:date:message-id:subject:to; bh=oPRATLEbGmmSAPBpnbvErwvkia3uC0wbwoyMW66VZdY=; b=ZlGk31JivUBxdrHPjzevgHBOKlc6iMCKOXWZeQ6TUoCEoPJdHA/2LDy0uuocjvsnaW CfYqa/7iTAIggPq6zkdjz254uRnQajhXr1d87gyflSJHipcttiAe4nyGBLiDVSRBtKVy TZk1NbKg4mj9QOGJxe34o9prDAC1J68IOTBe8k/q85QmjSy1J51twrs/Fppbdjzgtf5P xwYougLMrBFd2k7b7sUDsYPpAlOyr4kEbhiDi3tpwlMfJBDK3+hRg4VaL0wZodALRKKt wwyMHSrkiJlK66rmRJJ9hbl4LxgASuw80rYPyAuylsd23qDvi3/N92XYex7Oyg2d8qdb iYTA== X-Google-DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=1e100.net; s=20161025; h=x-gm-message-state:mime-version:in-reply-to:references:from:date :message-id:subject:to; bh=oPRATLEbGmmSAPBpnbvErwvkia3uC0wbwoyMW66VZdY=; b=Q7fs1qiqGFXNU2WuUXD4ANxIC8hDWPOyL4riTGwU3O74mI9cqbaTMTHZc0iOipSmn6 y1lWh+yw8RYZgfi97anyufxM3JmVIgQNp9TyVyiYKxvQcUAkm1P10WtPqrxLLIKJGi/2 xfTYp9MilbGsCAd7onsJgdUQktq2q+kLf5HjIh0S71PSOMpBnUOBtHDOdIMymYidl+Ry G129Ed1yJE5P9mX1xvqVcBUEGJnk3iV2sFOQtuCI7nH6+h2yxsY72ICZx345TeFEP7QH rSiW/PLfRo5M88vlEPBSR+WomcLqNSvOhKgY6d+MxYo6IAQFmukB4gQnK2fhEHfGcfBz 7z7A== X-Gm-Message-State: APf1xPBtW4zmJIPykgGsHFi8E53g3lxSMCJR8eSs/x09WQ95D3eQdAbf v7F2TloeGk0XcngkXanEriwp6r7CkTIsJNZR8V1F8Q== X-Google-Smtp-Source: AH8x2278AY5Sgi0U9x+LTy0mIfEjocApNfxK6wI/OmlS/Kd1eiE790dPHPdF3tFN8QC4vxCM2hgBwZ7canaDU1Bb5t0= X-Received: by 10.107.164.70 with SMTP id n67mr14328958ioe.88.1518456215487; Mon, 12 Feb 2018 09:23:35 -0800 (PST) MIME-Version: 1.0 Received: by 10.107.48.75 with HTTP; Mon, 12 Feb 2018 09:23:35 -0800 (PST) In-Reply-To: References: From: Melvin Carvalho Date: Mon, 12 Feb 2018 18:23:35 +0100 Message-ID: To: Bitcoin Protocol Discussion Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="001a114289f254c9fe0565072321" X-Spam-Status: No, score=-2.0 required=5.0 tests=BAYES_00,DKIM_SIGNED, DKIM_VALID,DKIM_VALID_AU,FREEMAIL_FROM,HTML_MESSAGE,LOTS_OF_MONEY, RCVD_IN_DNSWL_NONE,T_MONEY_PERCENT autolearn=ham version=3.3.1 X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 3.3.1 (2010-03-16) on smtp1.linux-foundation.org X-Mailman-Approved-At: Mon, 12 Feb 2018 17:26:37 +0000 Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Total fees have almost crossed the block reward X-BeenThere: bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.12 Precedence: list List-Id: Bitcoin Protocol Discussion List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 12 Feb 2018 17:23:37 -0000 --001a114289f254c9fe0565072321 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" On 21 December 2017 at 22:30, Melvin Carvalho wrote: > I asked adam back at hcpp how the block chain would be secured in the long > term, once the reward goes away. The base idea has always been that fees > would replace the block reward. > > At that time fees were approximately 10% of the block reward, but have now > reached 45%, with 50% potentially being crossed soon > > https://fork.lol/reward/feepct > > While this bodes well for the long term security of the coin, I think > there is some legitimate concern that the fee per tx is prohibitive for > some use cases, at this point in the adoption curve. > > Observations of segwit adoption show around 10% at this point > > http://segwit.party/charts/ > > Watching the mempool shows that the congestion is at a peak, though it's > quite possible this will come down over the long weekend. I wonder if this > is of concern to some. > > https://dedi.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/more/#24h > > I thought these data points may be of interest and are mainly FYI. Though > if further discussion is deemed appropriate, it would be interesting to > hear thoughts. > Just following up on this, for no other reason than I've had my eyes glued to these stats the last few weeks. I'll share a few more stats links. Mempool has come down significantly, as have fees. Tho, of course, this could spike any time. https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/ Typically fees are : $2.06 on tx $543 (median) # 0.38% $3.47 on tx $75,000 (mean) # 0.005% Aside: An observation on this. High value transactors seems to be getting a much better deal, than the mean. This lead me to ponder whether the intuitive metric of satoshi/byte is, in fact, game theory optimal. Possibly over the short term it is, but over a longer period, those wishing to increase the longevity of proof of work in general might wish to consider more progressive fee approaches. Naively, it might be possible to imagine some kind of gaussian distribution that picks tx according to a blended combination of sats/byte and %transacted. Perhaps something for miners and fee estimation algorithms to develop over time. Segwit adoption has increased, and anecdotal evidence shows that trend to continue. The release of 0.16 will I think also have a positive effect. Finally, I came across this wonderful site that shows lightning network adoption on mainnet http://shabang.io/ LN is increasing well. Some blocks are not far off 1% lightning funding, which I think bodes well. I'll go out on a limb and predict that over 1% of btc tx will be lightning based by year end. Since such posts are not strictly development, I'll keep them to a minimum. However, I hope these stats provide useful data points for project evolution. --001a114289f254c9fe0565072321 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable


On 21 December 2017 at 22:30, Melvin Carvalho <melvincarvalho@g= mail.com> wrote:
I asked adam back at h= cpp how the block chain would be secured in the long term, once the reward = goes away.=C2=A0 The base idea has always been that fees would replace the = block reward.

At that time fees were approximately 10% of the = block reward, but have now reached 45%, with 50% potentially being crossed = soon

ht= tps://fork.lol/reward/feepct

While this bodes well for the= long term security of the coin, I think there is some legitimate concern t= hat the fee per tx is prohibitive for some use cases, at this point in the = adoption curve.

Observations of segwit adoption show around 10= % at this point

http://segwit.party/charts/

Watching the mempool sho= ws that the congestion is at a peak, though it's quite possible this wi= ll come down over the long weekend.=C2=A0 I wonder if this is of concern to= some.

https://dedi.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/more/#24h
I thought these data points may be of interest and are mainly F= YI.=C2=A0 Though if further discussion is deemed appropriate, it would be i= nteresting to hear thoughts.

Just= following up on this, for no other reason than I've had my eyes glued = to these stats the last few weeks.=C2=A0 I'll share a few more stats li= nks.

Mempool has come down significantly, as have fees.= =C2=A0 Tho, of course, this could spike any time.=C2=A0

https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/<= br>
Typically fees are :

=C2=A0$2.06 on tx $543 (media= n) # 0.38%
=C2=A0$3.47 on tx $75,000 (mean) # 0.005%

A= side: An observation on this.=C2=A0 High value transactors seems to be gett= ing a much better deal, than the mean.=C2=A0 This lead me to ponder whether= the intuitive metric of satoshi/byte is, in fact, game theory optimal.=C2= =A0 Possibly over the short term it is, but over a longer period, those wis= hing to increase the longevity of proof of work in general might wish to co= nsider more progressive fee approaches.=C2=A0 Naively, it might be possible= to imagine some kind of gaussian distribution that picks tx according to a= blended combination of sats/byte and %transacted.=C2=A0 Perhaps something = for miners and fee estimation algorithms to develop over time.

Segwit adoption has increased, and anecdotal evidence shows that tre= nd to continue.=C2=A0 The release of 0.16 will I think also have a positive= effect.

Finally, I came across thi= s wonderful site that shows lightning network adoption on mainnet

http://shabang.io/

LN is increasing well.=C2=A0 Some blocks are not far off 1= % lightning funding, which I think bodes well.=C2=A0 I'll go out on a l= imb and predict that over 1% of btc tx will be lightning based by year end.=

Since such posts are not strictly = development, I'll keep them to a minimum.=C2=A0 However, I hope these s= tats provide useful data points for project evolution.


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