From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Received: from sog-mx-4.v43.ch3.sourceforge.com ([172.29.43.194] helo=mx.sourceforge.net) by sfs-ml-3.v29.ch3.sourceforge.com with esmtp (Exim 4.76) (envelope-from ) id 1XjElI-00021P-0o for bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net; Tue, 28 Oct 2014 21:57:08 +0000 Received-SPF: pass (sog-mx-4.v43.ch3.sourceforge.com: domain of gmail.com designates 209.85.213.176 as permitted sender) client-ip=209.85.213.176; envelope-from=christophe.biocca@gmail.com; helo=mail-ig0-f176.google.com; Received: from mail-ig0-f176.google.com ([209.85.213.176]) by sog-mx-4.v43.ch3.sourceforge.com with esmtps (TLSv1:RC4-SHA:128) (Exim 4.76) id 1XjElH-0007d4-08 for bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net; Tue, 28 Oct 2014 21:57:07 +0000 Received: by mail-ig0-f176.google.com with SMTP id l13so112590iga.3 for ; Tue, 28 Oct 2014 14:57:01 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Received: by 10.50.43.231 with SMTP id z7mr7119105igl.36.1414533421467; Tue, 28 Oct 2014 14:57:01 -0700 (PDT) Received: by 10.64.166.135 with HTTP; Tue, 28 Oct 2014 14:57:01 -0700 (PDT) In-Reply-To: References: Date: Tue, 28 Oct 2014 17:57:01 -0400 Message-ID: From: Christophe Biocca To: Neil Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 X-Spam-Score: -1.6 (-) X-Spam-Report: Spam Filtering performed by mx.sourceforge.net. See http://spamassassin.org/tag/ for more details. -1.5 SPF_CHECK_PASS SPF reports sender host as permitted sender for sender-domain 0.0 FREEMAIL_FROM Sender email is commonly abused enduser mail provider (christophe.biocca[at]gmail.com) -0.0 SPF_PASS SPF: sender matches SPF record -0.1 DKIM_VALID_AU Message has a valid DKIM or DK signature from author's domain 0.1 DKIM_SIGNED Message has a DKIM or DK signature, not necessarily valid -0.1 DKIM_VALID Message has at least one valid DKIM or DK signature X-Headers-End: 1XjElH-0007d4-08 Cc: Bitcoin Development Subject: Re: [Bitcoin-development] Fwd: death by halving X-BeenThere: bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.9 Precedence: list List-Id: List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 28 Oct 2014 21:57:08 -0000 > The fact that it is known in advance is no counter argument to me. But it does change miner behaviour in pretty significant ways. Unlike difficulty forecasting, which seems near impossible to do accurately, miners can plan to purchase less hardware as they approach the revenue drop. You can do some basic cost/benefit calculation and see that *if* margins are already low as the halving approaches, then rational miners would cease purchasing any new hardware that wouldn't be profitable past that point, unless they expect it to pay for itself by then. The lower the margins are, the longer in advance they would alter their buying behaviour. You'd see an increased focus on cost-effective hashpower (and older units would not be replaced as they break). Either a significant supply of cost effective hardware shows up (because it's the only thing that would sell in the last months), or difficulty would stall long before the halving happens. Either way, the predictability of the halving can reduce the hashpower on the day. On Tue, Oct 28, 2014 at 5:34 PM, Neil wrote: > Economically a halving is almost the same as a halving in price (as fees > take up more of the pie, less so). > > Coincidentally the price has halved since early July to mid-October, and > we've not even seen difficulty fall yet. > > I don't think there's much to see here. > > Neil > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ > > _______________________________________________ > Bitcoin-development mailing list > Bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net > https://lists.sourceforge.net/lists/listinfo/bitcoin-development >