> If you wait until the need to increase block size

It is this sentence I disagree with. Why would there be a need? Bitcoin provides utility at any block size, and potentially more with larger blocks.

But no matter what, I believe the economy will adapt to what is available. And setting a precedent that increasing the size "because of a need" is reasonable is to me essentially the same as saying the size should forever scale to whatever people want.

I believe the most important effect of a limit block size - people deciding not to use (on chain) Bitcoin transactions, is already happening, and it will keep happening at any scale.

Either the resulting market is one which can live with high variability in confirmation times, and blocks will end up being nearly full. Or maybe the current fill level is what is acceptable, and we don't see much growth beyond this, only a change in what it is used for.

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Pieter