From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Return-Path: Received: from smtp4.osuosl.org (smtp4.osuosl.org [IPv6:2605:bc80:3010::137]) by lists.linuxfoundation.org (Postfix) with ESMTP id B8EC3C0001 for ; Tue, 11 May 2021 09:05:45 +0000 (UTC) Received: from localhost (localhost [127.0.0.1]) by smtp4.osuosl.org (Postfix) with ESMTP id 8DB1F40ED7 for ; Tue, 11 May 2021 09:05:45 +0000 (UTC) X-Virus-Scanned: amavisd-new at osuosl.org X-Spam-Flag: NO X-Spam-Score: -2.089 X-Spam-Level: X-Spam-Status: No, score=-2.089 tagged_above=-999 required=5 tests=[BAYES_00=-1.9, DKIM_SIGNED=0.1, DKIM_VALID=-0.1, DKIM_VALID_AU=-0.1, DKIM_VALID_EF=-0.1, HTML_MESSAGE=0.001, RCVD_IN_MSPIKE_H3=0.001, RCVD_IN_MSPIKE_WL=0.001, SPF_HELO_PASS=-0.001, SPF_PASS=-0.001, T_KAM_HTML_FONT_INVALID=0.01] autolearn=ham autolearn_force=no Authentication-Results: smtp4.osuosl.org (amavisd-new); dkim=pass (2048-bit key) header.d=tutanota.de Received: from smtp4.osuosl.org ([127.0.0.1]) by localhost (smtp4.osuosl.org [127.0.0.1]) (amavisd-new, port 10024) with ESMTP id xY12vGQv1Ijl for ; Tue, 11 May 2021 09:05:43 +0000 (UTC) X-Greylist: from auto-whitelisted by SQLgrey-1.8.0 Received: from w1.tutanota.de (w1.tutanota.de [81.3.6.162]) by smtp4.osuosl.org (Postfix) with ESMTPS id EEC8540EA2 for ; Tue, 11 May 2021 09:05:42 +0000 (UTC) Received: from w3.tutanota.de (unknown [192.168.1.164]) by w1.tutanota.de (Postfix) with ESMTP id E5558FBF510; Tue, 11 May 2021 09:05:40 +0000 (UTC) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; q=dns/txt; c=relaxed/relaxed; t=1620723940; s=s1; d=tutanota.de; h=From:From:To:To:Subject:Subject:Content-Description:Content-ID:Content-Type:Content-Type:Content-Transfer-Encoding:Cc:Cc:Date:Date:In-Reply-To:In-Reply-To:MIME-Version:MIME-Version:Message-ID:Message-ID:Reply-To:References:References:Sender; bh=CeitD5KGEIeUF2kXFEsJfh3EGFYfCj2UE1N+eKa52FM=; b=wegl8NHigU0G+l/G3apJLSNUZDPA2tAeSAfZkqlNUIZrDOWrGkEEhIjXqussSLk3 96G9bXVUvX+vqlJ+2mygfkPHih1U1/Yys4CfOzP1p/5+bqFtnNqCZbivp/8979losNj xwM2nA8/FLo1ghPc+n+SooVmDI4KJHvbsVbXlbwScOMOOgrA92qmmUTqV21q6z/ROdS LyRMLW4UHv75VWhoIAl/wsIUIvNHMhQNpKfJ7bUnHFpHS8sWBypO7v/Gt7Pl7/q8IuO B0e4+0vRjRnzXWxyuxwGIDKbuT9MttkMjjBkRpmsB3bIkpk64tgEqrfd3c0AMKoFaSk c+QZvzOJrQ== Date: Tue, 11 May 2021 11:05:40 +0200 (CEST) From: Prayank To: ZmnSCPxj Message-ID: In-Reply-To: References: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_Part_124237_1473100091.1620723940906" X-Mailman-Approved-At: Tue, 11 May 2021 10:00:24 +0000 Cc: Bitcoin Protocol Discussion Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Prediction Markets and Bitcoin X-BeenThere: bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.15 Precedence: list List-Id: Bitcoin Protocol Discussion List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 11 May 2021 09:05:45 -0000 ------=_Part_124237_1473100091.1620723940906 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Good morning=C2=A0ZmnSCPxj, This will be a long email because I want to cover all the things and diffic= ult to express them in few sentences or respond to the tweets about use of = futures markets in Bitcoin. TL;DR: Prediction markets or futures markets can be helpful in collecting m= ore information and hedging however, if used incorrectly can become a reaso= n for failure of Bitcoin. =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D >=C2=A0Of course development must be free to do what is best technically, a= nd to experiment and see what other techniques are possible or workable. Th= us the market must follow development. Agree. >=C2=A0Of course the people ultimately funding the development must impose = what direction that development goes to, after all, it is their money that = is being modified. Thus development must follow the market. Disagree.=C2=A0 1.A position in a futures market about possible outcomes of an event is not= equivalent to funding Bitcoin development. 2.People or organizations funding Bitcoin developers or projects can always= have some opinion, influence and disagreements. They can never impose or f= orce something at least in Bitcoin protocol. > what is unclear is what the market wants, thus I think prediction markets= are something that are needed in order for the negotiation Partially agree. Yes, its not clear what the market wants and sometimes its= unclear even after expiry of futures contract because two people can look = at the same data and share different analysis. Prediction markets are not n= eeded for negotiation but can be helpful sometimes. =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D 3 things I mentioned in TL;DR: Hedging, Collecting information and Incorrec= t usage 1.Hedging: Futures market can be useful in hedging few things in Bitcoin. Jack Mallers= had shared the idea of using futures markets for 'fees' in Lightning Confe= rence:=C2=A0https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DrBCG0btUlTw Summary of the presentation(Hedging the chain): Derivatives contracts are u= sed to hedge financial exposure.=C2=A0 Projects and businesses that use bit= coin transactions regularly prefer paying less transaction fees. Miners rev= enue increases if transaction fees goes up and subsidy is reduced after eve= ry 210,000 blocks so miners prefer high transaction fees or more fees per b= lock. Examples: A)Zap expects $1000/month on-chain operating costs. Longs(1x) on-chain fee = futures. If bitcoin transaction fees for the month costs more than $1000, t= he loss will be covered with profits from long position. If long position i= s in loss because fees are low, it will be covered by paying less than $100= 0 for the month in transaction fees. Miner expects $1000/month on-chain fee profits. Shorts(1x) on-chain fee fut= ures. If short position is in loss because fees go up, loss will be covered= with more profits from mining. If profits are less from mining because fee= s was low, loss will be covered with profits in short position, B)Hashrate Derivatives:=C2=A0https://onthebrink-podcast.com/tim-kelly-bitoo= da/ C)Consider there is a futures contract for Taproot soft fork. Alice has don= e enough research and thinks Taproot will be activated. She opens a long po= sition. Bob thinks miners signaling will not reach the required threshold, = so Taproot will not be activated with MASF. Bob opens a short position. Car= ol is working on a project that will work better with taproot activated. Sh= e is not interested in speculating but wants to hedge the financial exposur= e. Carol expects her project will receive $10000 funding and make $1000 pro= fits per month. She opens a short position (1x) which will cover the loss i= ncase taproot is not activated. If taproot is not activated, UASF can take = another year which will delay her funding and profits but she can cover thi= s loss with the profits from short position. This futures contract will exp= ire on=C2=A02021-08-11 00:00 UTC and settlement is based on multiple oracle= s that broadcast results for `getblockchaininfo` regularly for their nodes.= Start date can be before or after signaling. Trade-offs: If the futures co= ntract starts before signaling, miners are likely to follow the market (not= necessary). If the futures contract starts after a week of signaling, trad= ers can use this information while opening a position. In this example, fut= ures contract starts from=C2=A02021-05-01 00:00 UTC. Similarly if we improve privacy in Bitcoin with a soft fork that includes c= onfidential transactions, Chainalysis can use such futures contract to open= a long position because it affects their business. If CT-SF is activated, = they can cover some loss with the profits from long position.=C2=A0 2.Collecting more information: a - Bitcoin Dev Mailing List b - Different PRs: GitHub repository for Bitcoin Core and other implementat= ions c - IRC channels d - Bitcoin Stackexchange (If not sure about some technical things involved= in a soft fork) e - Reddit posts f - Twitter (Not the best place to discuss anything important but used a lo= t so consider it as a source) g- Opinion of mining pools: 2nd column in the table=C2=A0https://taprootact= ivation.com/ h- Bitcoin meetups i - Bitcoin podcasts k- Interacting with different people involved in exchanges(centralized and = DEX), wallets, merchants, layer 2 projects, darknet forums, journalists and= activists that use bitcoin for censorship resistant payments, people in co= untries where local currency cannot be used to store value long term, new d= evelopers interested to build Bitcoin projects, people and organizations fu= nding different Bitcoin projects or devs etc. l - Miners signaling:=C2=A0https://taproot.watch/=C2=A0(This is not voting,= it represents "readiness") m-Futures market using P2P derivatives:=C2=A0https://github.com/p2pderivati= ves/p2pderivatives-client I don't think futures market in this case will be able to aggregate and ref= lect all available information so everything mentioned above has its own im= portance which should be considered. Maybe I missed few things. 3.Incorrect usage of futures markets in Bitcoin and other issues: Issues and few examples: Incentives: If you create a futures market to predict if someone is alive o= r not, there can always be someone trying to exploit it by betting on death= and kill the person before expiry of futures contract. Similarly, miners c= an manipulate fees in short term and affect the futures market suggested by= Jack Mallers. Legality: It may not be possible for everyone to participate in such market= s or some people may avoid because of laws in their country. Knowledge: You need more than just money and click on a button to understan= d changes proposed in a BIP. Not everyone can understand the technical thin= gs involved. Due to this lack of knowledge, the crowd can sometimes be wron= g. Volume and Liquidity: Thin orderbooks and low trading volumes can be manipu= lated easily. Prediction market inaccuracies: -Brexit -2016 US Presidential Elections -In 2004 presidential markets a single trader made a series of large invest= ments in an apparent attempt to make one candidate appear stronger (This ma= nipulation was for short term but=C2=A0markets can remain irrational longer= than you can remain solvent) -Finding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq in 2003 -Nomination of John Roberts to the U.S. Supreme Court in 2005 A)We don't have enough sample size to conclude anything about use of future= s markets for Bitcoin soft forks in past. B)Futures markets cannot be used alone to 'decide' 'things in Bitcoin by ig= noring everything else. Example: A soft fork is proposed as BIP. Code to im= plement is reviewed. Most users agree with the improvements. Mining pools, = exchanges, merchants, different projects, other businesses have no issues. = Miners signaling in first week looks positive. Futures market is uncertain = and this uncertainty is reflected in signaling for sometime. People who are= against UASF think Bitcoin doesn't need any improvements. Miners signaling= was more than 70% but never reach the threshold and soft fork is not activ= ated. Any discussions about UASF are termed as anti-Bitcoin by few devs bec= ause "markets".=C2=A0 This soft fork could have improved privacy and add mo= re features. However, we ignore everything and respond with "ossification" = meme or something else on Twitter when someone asks for basic improvements = in Bitcoin. Futures markets should exist and nobody can stop people from participating = in such markets however we should be careful in using them for Bitcoin. --=20 Prayank Apr 16, 2021, 09:09 by ZmnSCPxj@protonmail.com: > Good morning Prayank, > > >> I think prediction markets or such tokens might help in adding to the in= formation we already have however they don't decide or replace anything. Bi= tcoin development should impact such markets and not the other way around.= =C2=A0 >> > > "Human behavior is economic behavior. The particulars may vary, but compe= tition for limited resources remains a constant. Need as well as greed have= followed us to the stars, and the rewards of wealth still await those wise= enough to recognize this deep thrumming of our common pulse. " -- CEO Nwab= udike Morgan, "The Centauri Monopoly", *Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri* > > This is the tension between the necessary freedom of discovering strange = new techniques, and the exigencies of life, where every joule of negentropy= is a carefully measured resource. > > Of course development must be free to do what is best technically, and to= experiment and see what other techniques are possible or workable. > Thus the market must follow development. > > Of course the people ultimately funding the development must impose what = direction that development goes to, after all, it is their money that is be= ing modified. > Thus development must follow the market. > > It is the negotiation of the two that is difficult. > > Overall, I think a lot of the developer arguments are reasonably clear --= - what is unclear is what the market wants, thus I think prediction markets= are something that are needed in order for the negotiation between these t= wo aspects to advance. > > Regards, > ZmnSCPxj > ------=_Part_124237_1473100091.1620723940906 Content-Type: text/html; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Good morning ZmnSCPxj,
This will be a long email because I want to= cover all the things and difficult to express them in few sentences or res= pond to the tweets about use of futures markets in Bitcoin.

TL;DR: Prediction markets or fu= tures markets can be helpful in collecting more information and hedging how= ever, if used incorrectly can become a reason for failure of Bitcoin.

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D

> Of course development must be free to do what is best technica= lly, and to experiment and see what other techniques are possible or workab= le. Thus the market must follow development.
<= br>
Agree.

=
> Of course the people ultimately funding the d= evelopment must impose what direction that development goes to, after all, = it is their money that is being modified. Thus development must follow the = market.

Disagree= . 

1.A posi= tion in a futures market about possible outcomes of an event is not equival= ent to funding Bitcoin development.

=
2.People or organizations funding Bitcoin developers or= projects can always have some opinion, influence and disagreements. They c= an never impose or force something at least in Bitcoin protocol.
<= div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !impo= rtant; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: no= ne; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMac= SystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Helve= tica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoj= i", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; = font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400= ; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; = text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -w= ebkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-de= coration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoratio= n-color: initial;">
> what is unclear is wh= at the market wants, thus I think prediction markets are something that are= needed in order for the negotiation

Partially agree. Yes, its not clear what the market wa= nts and sometimes its unclear even after expiry of futures contract because= two people can look at the same data and share different analysis. Predict= ion markets are not needed for negotiation but can be helpful sometimes.

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D

3 things I mentioned in TL;DR: Hedging, Collecting information and In= correct usage

1.= Hedging:
Futures market can be useful in hedgi= ng few things in Bitcoin. Jack Mallers had shared the idea of using futures= markets for 'fees' in Lightning Conference: https://www.youtube.com/wat= ch?v=3DrBCG0btUlTw

Summary of the presentation(Hedging the chain): Derivatives contract= s are used to hedge financial exposure.  Projects and businesses that = use bitcoin transactions regularly prefer paying less transaction fees. Min= ers revenue increases if transaction fees goes up and subsidy is reduced af= ter every 210,000 blocks so miners prefer high transaction fees or more fee= s per block.

Exa= mples:

A)Zap exp= ects $1000/month on-chain operating costs. Longs(1x) on-chain fee futures. = If bitcoin transaction fees for the month costs more than $1000, the loss w= ill be covered with profits from long position. If long position is in loss= because fees are low, it will be covered by paying less than $1000 for the= month in transaction fees.

Miner expects $1000/month on-chain fee profits. Shorts(1x) on-c= hain fee futures. If short position is in loss because fees go up, loss wil= l be covered with more profits from mining. If profits are less from mining= because fees was low, loss will be covered with profits in short position,=

B)Hashrate Deri= vatives: https://onthebrink-podcast.com/tim-kelly-bitooda/

C)Consider there is a= futures contract for Taproot soft fork. Alice has done enough research and= thinks Taproot will be activated. She opens a long position. Bob thinks mi= ners signaling will not reach the required threshold, so Taproot will not b= e activated with MASF. Bob opens a short position. Carol is working on a pr= oject that will work better with taproot activated. She is not interested i= n speculating but wants to hedge the financial exposure. Carol expects her = project will receive $10000 funding and make $1000 profits per month. She o= pens a short position (1x) which will cover the loss incase taproot is not = activated. If taproot is not activated, UASF can take another year which wi= ll delay her funding and profits but she can cover this loss with the profi= ts from short position. This futures contract will expire on 2021-08-1= 1 00:00 UTC and settlement is based on multiple oracles that broadcast resu= lts for `getblockchaininfo` regularly for their nodes. Start date can be be= fore or after signaling. Trade-offs: If the futures contract starts before = signaling, miners are likely to follow the market (not necessary). If the f= utures contract starts after a week of signaling, traders can use this info= rmation while opening a position. In this example, futures contract starts = from 2021-05-01 00:00 UTC.

Similarly if we improve privacy in Bitcoin with a soft fork= that includes confidential transactions, Chainalysis can use such futures = contract to open a long position because it affects their business. If CT-S= F is activated, they can cover some loss with the profits from long positio= n. 

2.Colle= cting more information:
a - Bitcoin Dev Mailin= g List
b - Different PRs: GitHub repository fo= r Bitcoin Core and other implementations
c - I= RC channels
d - Bitcoin Stackexchange (If not = sure about some technical things involved in a soft fork)
e - Reddit posts
f - Twitter (Not = the best place to discuss anything important but used a lot so consider it = as a source)
g- Opinion of mining pools: 2nd c= olumn in the table https://taprootactivation.com/
h- B= itcoin meetups
i - Bitcoin podcasts
<= div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !impo= rtant; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: no= ne; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMac= SystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Helve= tica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoj= i", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; = font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400= ; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; = text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -w= ebkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-de= coration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoratio= n-color: initial;">k- Interacting with different people involved in exchang= es(centralized and DEX), wallets, merchants, layer 2 projects, darknet foru= ms, journalists and activists that use bitcoin for censorship resistant pay= ments, people in countries where local currency cannot be used to store val= ue long term, new developers interested to build Bitcoin projects, people a= nd organizations funding different Bitcoin projects or devs etc.
<= div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !impo= rtant; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: no= ne; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMac= SystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Helve= tica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoj= i", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; = font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400= ; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; = text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -w= ebkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-de= coration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoratio= n-color: initial;">l - Miners signaling: https://taproot.watch/ (This is not voting, i= t represents "readiness")
m-Futures market usi= ng P2P derivatives: https://github.com/p2pderivatives/p2pderiv= atives-client


3.Incorrect usage of futu= res markets in Bitcoin and other issues:

<= /div>
Issues and few examples:

Incentives: If you create a futures marke= t to predict if someone is alive or not, there can always be someone trying= to exploit it by betting on death and kill the person before expiry of fut= ures contract. Similarly, miners can manipulate fees in short term and affe= ct the futures market suggested by Jack Mallers.

Legality: It may not be possible for every= one to participate in such markets or some people may avoid because of laws= in their country.

Knowledge: You need more than just money and click on a button to unders= tand changes proposed in a BIP. Not everyone can understand the technical t= hings involved. Due to this lack of knowledge, the crowd can sometimes be w= rong.

Volume and= Liquidity: Thin orderbooks and low trading volumes can be manipulated easi= ly.

Prediction m= arket inaccuracies:

-Brexit
-2016 US Presidential Elections
-In 2004 presidential markets a single trader ma= de a series of large investments in an apparent attempt to make one candida= te appear stronger (This manipulation was for short term but markets c= an remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent)
-Finding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq in 2003
-Nomination of John Roberts to the U.S. Supreme Court in = 2005

A)We don't = have enough sample size to conclude anything about use of futures markets f= or Bitcoin soft forks in past.

B)Futures markets cannot be used alone to 'decide' 'things i= n Bitcoin by ignoring everything else. Example: A soft fork is proposed as = BIP. Code to implement is reviewed. Most users agree with the improvements.= Mining pools, exchanges, merchants, different projects, other businesses h= ave no issues. Miners signaling in first week looks positive. Futures marke= t is uncertain and this uncertainty is reflected in signaling for sometime.= People who are against UASF think Bitcoin doesn't need any improvements. M= iners signaling was more than 70% but never reach the threshold and soft fo= rk is not activated. Any discussions about UASF are termed as anti-Bitcoin = by few devs because "markets".  This soft fork could have improved pri= vacy and add more features. However, we ignore everything and respond with = "ossification" meme or something else on Twitter when someone asks for basi= c improvements in Bitcoin.

Futures markets should exist and nobody can stop people from par= ticipating in such markets however we should be careful in using them for B= itcoin.

--
Prayank
<= br>

Apr 16, 2021, 09:09 by ZmnSCPxj@protonmail.com= :
Good morning Pray= ank,

I think prediction markets or such= tokens might help in adding to the information we already have however the= y don't decide or replace anything. Bitcoin development should impact such = markets and not the other way around. 

=
"Human behavior is economic behavior. The particulars may vary, but co= mpetition for limited resources remains a constant. Need as well as greed h= ave followed us to the stars, and the rewards of wealth still await those w= ise enough to recognize this deep thrumming of our common pulse. " -- CEO N= wabudike Morgan, "The Centauri Monopoly", *Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri*
<= /div>

This is the tension between the necessary freedom = of discovering strange new techniques, and the exigencies of life, where ev= ery joule of negentropy is a carefully measured resource.
Of course development must be free to do what is best technical= ly, and to experiment and see what other techniques are possible or workabl= e.
Thus the market must follow development.
Of course the people ultimately funding the development must im= pose what direction that development goes to, after all, it is their money = that is being modified.
Thus development must follow the mark= et.

It is the negotiation of the two that is d= ifficult.

Overall, I think a lot of the develo= per arguments are reasonably clear --- what is unclear is what the market w= ants, thus I think prediction markets are something that are needed in orde= r for the negotiation between these two aspects to advance.
<= br>
Regards,
ZmnSCPxj
------=_Part_124237_1473100091.1620723940906--