From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Delivery-date: Mon, 05 May 2025 23:03:40 -0700 Received: from mail-oo1-f58.google.com ([209.85.161.58]) by mail.fairlystable.org with esmtps (TLS1.3) tls TLS_ECDHE_RSA_WITH_AES_128_GCM_SHA256 (Exim 4.94.2) (envelope-from ) id 1uCBP1-0006pm-Hr for bitcoindev@gnusha.org; Mon, 05 May 2025 23:03:40 -0700 Received: by mail-oo1-f58.google.com with SMTP id 006d021491bc7-6081a57b850sf821006eaf.0 for ; Mon, 05 May 2025 23:03:39 -0700 (PDT) ARC-Seal: i=2; a=rsa-sha256; t=1746511413; cv=pass; d=google.com; s=arc-20240605; b=Dw3liC42cZccJifVR9ToTwaZVMPyZKqbRKqEX5oNkaNyk7Ug/N8bLw3xBzaAL9IGMr PV6DLQEAsAGWEsXJK3sf1C3GQOIdnymrZoLRO0hHwDYyJRfudCxUl1V6OPKb3G420ECG 8k43haIbB5a/D3USpR0oKYoQY8ojyha6bIWAWtreJ5gEh+wHUk7Bn1BkCONOanIYDqBZ ZfQm3vhbhjiR3XfDQoWLlDavzPTLuJMJfZ+w2egq7IsJmawpGUhniduHff8WcFAlSeGI WJoiHJw+HGMFUNKpZJ+3GHJ7f5sRwo4NW1IXYzjDPNVsey+0XgH3cS07wQF6oc9oxGtE 1NeQ== ARC-Message-Signature: i=2; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=google.com; s=arc-20240605; h=list-unsubscribe:list-subscribe:list-archive:list-help:list-post :list-id:mailing-list:precedence:in-reply-to:content-disposition :mime-version:references:message-id:subject:to:from:date:sender :dkim-signature; bh=ciRHj1LnzOz4XqOe3yQ3QB67lAwg5f9jY0duurY3zLE=; fh=Z68CFOvxcVv+XhWcFRNTm2Mg+Ob03NMZq79lymZwdpw=; b=En44czvKHcnALOwUoqSOzQk0IlYCBXo8vUnaVcKa0s+oy2h0nCw8ZSCOyiRyyk/4iT j8xYVMBcC5TgbA4L98M37O4aZ8MQ4ymmRmp8CgX8QUp91INVjFc5uSGhgPFjivjmfscQ 7AniUh4zEj8z0IvEE1A/KRZfCCHNPi++6M3EiqCSgzIjq6oTpn9m7Oqa9sUrmby1Pyj8 yGwxfzVyM+oloNCSt8vRYgQoAdrAjSCqJZ6gWdUJFjXq+LxeTStflgV377cu6NXUPmUc Y28GH6DQXGsid26z5vz+dDMY0R+615gv35//M57DcBaASOWf0JcqyPFSNAhN0frERe5d UVig==; darn=gnusha.org ARC-Authentication-Results: i=2; gmr-mx.google.com; spf=pass (google.com: domain of aj@erisian.com.au designates 172.104.61.193 as permitted sender) smtp.mailfrom=aj@erisian.com.au DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=googlegroups.com; s=20230601; t=1746511413; x=1747116213; darn=gnusha.org; h=list-unsubscribe:list-subscribe:list-archive:list-help:list-post :list-id:mailing-list:precedence:x-original-authentication-results :x-original-sender:in-reply-to:content-disposition:mime-version :references:message-id:subject:to:from:date:sender:from:to:cc :subject:date:message-id:reply-to; bh=ciRHj1LnzOz4XqOe3yQ3QB67lAwg5f9jY0duurY3zLE=; b=N2mwvzvx1m11hQ1GCaOnyf3/gw2Zy4iqYV8WG2mTX/aamPHsi6QNFqhswIa2koNsQ9 myTdgR56W32zkbN+XWJDCmoE7hFIDuaEBKC9SXymnJ7RGojxolPba7kYA/gco9Yso2wj 19Qo2lrXm7wa7NO0AV8dj3tumkju/vSkv0dCEbd9FuSTA33RRJhCpxbgaNCbGyERl5Aw aY+dWiVjZ+oHi1/Tg9HuHSVKhIizV7c7esY1tpS/ET6OEww/4lA2B/ZRymQuCMxPyV2N CQI5RVHieXubRSXLGE9RPe7gx+NvrhtH1124bdiPhP0QuuFWYpfNzpJJEw3gQTdUmtgQ QO3w== X-Google-DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=1e100.net; s=20230601; t=1746511413; x=1747116213; h=list-unsubscribe:list-subscribe:list-archive:list-help:list-post :list-id:mailing-list:precedence:x-original-authentication-results :x-original-sender:in-reply-to:content-disposition:mime-version :references:message-id:subject:to:from:date:x-beenthere :x-gm-message-state:sender:from:to:cc:subject:date:message-id :reply-to; bh=ciRHj1LnzOz4XqOe3yQ3QB67lAwg5f9jY0duurY3zLE=; b=Y2cJnc0Phc04CAjl2phQLn0DCPhmgZn1de0P2rYkNK3t0HvrnHME9Txs5zwYKrBf5Y b7KkyOGTRnQwUCHJelmvd+9v6TVFPBpKJipeUO4Ka9UxN8D1JAM1MWFhBvtyHDiJuyIm bxwuWPw77znavmF7EwIJC6OsY3dfUhT7PUPvE98T7LVZEclNPSQsUd458d/EOdp9yKjG sfUluzVSB/3qggZrXUNMFDhu4tR5kY4qgKVTQ+QBeYMpXua6ic2nyZjSKWX6t9XoVREO zwvVno9RTMBtF9C63epZaXFsQJz73GhC0HF6nKnWtE61gebt4T67cnF9kSf93/d0ZRk5 5hHQ== Sender: bitcoindev@googlegroups.com X-Forwarded-Encrypted: i=2; AJvYcCWbp9jJDRvGle09PeH17kIQ3v/ewDPnL7j30fhBCpRG+dvAI5mpuufiquXDB7hgwvM5Qd4rgad23I5i@gnusha.org X-Gm-Message-State: AOJu0Yy2Aht5I4oXaDF9ims5ygc73X2RrYPvi7CLSMVik8pX8l60hG83 LZvsoFpQoH/5yw6I+EEgNwtvt0Uas3/OHzw4HVpSyuizBO//Z37v X-Google-Smtp-Source: AGHT+IGMJKkWdr36E6E6FjtBRih+yaBU/F1n/3fuYxSVZgpaOwmfRsG7WwrfLaFP8kHy0IhzsgDloQ== X-Received: by 2002:a4a:e908:0:b0:606:fb3b:7cf7 with SMTP id 006d021491bc7-608002f0efcmr5938975eaf.4.1746511413334; Mon, 05 May 2025 23:03:33 -0700 (PDT) X-BeenThere: bitcoindev@googlegroups.com; h=AVT/gBF50WQqhHV0Sgb0vy9KbnbnmSpnf8uR9HQV14QidJPxrg== Received: by 2002:a4a:cf0a:0:b0:5fe:b6d6:7500 with SMTP id 006d021491bc7-607df3c499els1134055eaf.2.-pod-prod-07-us; Mon, 05 May 2025 23:03:30 -0700 (PDT) X-Forwarded-Encrypted: i=2; AJvYcCUaeMj/kf+SSkKZMIc4x3pNUWDpplJuuNDflfX87zw04h2jIjwGoGZEFvFviTav8mAAYX1e8klWtXEn@googlegroups.com X-Received: by 2002:a05:6808:bce:b0:403:3c95:3684 with SMTP id 5614622812f47-4035a547ddemr7025656b6e.1.1746511410215; Mon, 05 May 2025 23:03:30 -0700 (PDT) Received: by 2002:a05:6808:14d5:b0:3fa:da36:efcd with SMTP id 5614622812f47-403425cae8dmsb6e; Mon, 5 May 2025 22:39:39 -0700 (PDT) X-Forwarded-Encrypted: i=2; AJvYcCWenLc6pMcusiRPMz3UfaFQBPbTI6dsY+a978kK8RASHKaaG15HMrFjypyL5x+0GaTbLRqRdY0UbU7c@googlegroups.com X-Received: by 2002:a17:90b:5488:b0:2ef:114d:7bf8 with SMTP id 98e67ed59e1d1-30a61958136mr13739592a91.6.1746509978253; Mon, 05 May 2025 22:39:38 -0700 (PDT) ARC-Seal: i=1; a=rsa-sha256; t=1746509978; cv=none; d=google.com; s=arc-20240605; b=CARRZIm/ULof2jSD056Q2OfcGuJLHglO0NPI8DFI52uc7T4XCPZVJmVNfodpLUVEoy K00aQDE7QnogPWsO+vRkQc0HReYzfFy//fVRQtDRqP1Rsbv3anSIvK/PtjIzGLSL6LPs Q/K9/DQ/yxavlBfzbXim8oj0VYxDbw3HAL92IxUIxss5YJVGCY6lFMvaXzphtehLdgGU Xx+K+Z1IULssQnfIP9JymRmKB3J0lZSOSC0q2wTsbuCZPO+aziq2Awe/z5747f5ZsOvx gtu5/KfzTJJtUpPMPpIC7Dh1VM9gZFawrOaRXawrZ8IOy3h2/LFFbP0VlLeWmJQLCwsX k39Q== ARC-Message-Signature: i=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=google.com; s=arc-20240605; h=in-reply-to:content-disposition:mime-version:references:message-id :subject:to:from:date; bh=KKCDStfuxd7jaVwl91iOiXxyaRVPBfGsLQi8aYA3mwc=; fh=IgFnY5WDwIMj8+dG/Z0V3vp6Za7PPdGSshFpF2DZM1Y=; b=QB5Xq0p0qWVWeGjZJPL1weJhmYImqyemSpHKf4MwXGe2tyl8vrSpnSApqg9cBwz+IJ hyVP+iQlywiPXv2WK7ZBTUrqj3kbet2V9/6A8GDaFXpCvfcpCBwu10KjYHlllqkiu/pK kXqj4po2holhuccz5hZZFWNaHxuJrr5onWEO5I8iOXTrA6/PSqelvOA64V3LwSuUKDdb 1hjE+0dQXuRjZkyz9USgQFRqiHjPu69RsoZl1W+y9pwgDZiNxKH3nEpCmZrRPhk0vHii QNnORFE8K9GZ2ZDK4nD7cIvZyDHdi4OGbPfUeXdWXD3x6uHXGazYhTVi//oRbm/k2vRb 5CRg==; dara=google.com ARC-Authentication-Results: i=1; gmr-mx.google.com; spf=pass (google.com: domain of aj@erisian.com.au designates 172.104.61.193 as permitted sender) smtp.mailfrom=aj@erisian.com.au Received: from cerulean.erisian.com.au (azure.erisian.com.au. [172.104.61.193]) by gmr-mx.google.com with ESMTPS id 98e67ed59e1d1-30a89305956si28289a91.1.2025.05.05.22.39.37 for (version=TLS1_3 cipher=TLS_AES_256_GCM_SHA384 bits=256/256); Mon, 05 May 2025 22:39:37 -0700 (PDT) Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of aj@erisian.com.au designates 172.104.61.193 as permitted sender) client-ip=172.104.61.193; Received: from aj@azure.erisian.com.au by cerulean.erisian.com.au with esmtpsa (TLS1.3) tls TLS_ECDHE_RSA_WITH_AES_256_GCM_SHA384 (Exim 4.96) (envelope-from ) id 1uCB1h-0000N7-3A; Tue, 06 May 2025 15:39:35 +1000 Received: by email (sSMTP sendmail emulation); Tue, 06 May 2025 15:39:31 +1000 Date: Tue, 6 May 2025 15:39:31 +1000 From: Anthony Towns To: Sergej Kotliar , Bitcoin Development Mailing List Subject: Re: [bitcoindev] Re: [bitcoin-dev] [Opt-in full-RBF] Zero-conf apps in immediate danger Message-ID: References: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Disposition: inline In-Reply-To: X-Spam_score: 0.0 X-Spam_bar: / X-Original-Sender: aj@erisian.com.au X-Original-Authentication-Results: gmr-mx.google.com; spf=pass (google.com: domain of aj@erisian.com.au designates 172.104.61.193 as permitted sender) smtp.mailfrom=aj@erisian.com.au Precedence: list Mailing-list: list bitcoindev@googlegroups.com; contact bitcoindev+owners@googlegroups.com List-ID: X-Google-Group-Id: 786775582512 List-Post: , List-Help: , List-Archive: , List-Unsubscribe: , X-Spam-Score: -0.8 (/) On Fri, May 02, 2025 at 08:06:18PM +1000, Anthony Towns wrote: > So the mempoolfullrbf default changed from false to true in 28.0 released > in October last year, which is advertised as being run by maybe 30%-40% > of the network now, and fullrbf transactions have been reportedly been mined > reliably since well before that. > > Any chance of an update on how that change has affected bitcoin/lightning > payment volume for you guys, or customer satisfaction (if payment > acceptance is delayed more often), or how much engineering/support time > was needed to adapt, or any other impact? There was a related thread on X late last year that offers some relevant information for these questions: https://x.com/MattAhlborg/status/1828436316930912364 Some key points from that thread, IMO: * The "relative volume" metric shows a drop in bitcoin/lightning volume from 30%-40% in 2022 to 25%-30% in late 2024 * The "monthly active users" metric shows a drop in bitcoin/lightning volume from about 50% to about 40% in a similar timeframe, as well as a large switch from on-chain to lightning * The "average payment size" metric shows distinctly different behaviours between on-chain bitcoin users and lightning users -- individual on-chain payments are about 4x greater in value than individual lightning payments * Bitrefill stopped accepting zeroconf transactions in Aug/Sep 2023; they didn't indicate if this was due to seeing a rise in (attempted?) fraud, or a purely preventative measure. * The charts show definite correlations between the decrease in on-chain activity with fee spikes * The charts don't show obvious correlations between on-chain activity and when bitrefill stopped accepting zeroconf transactions. At best you could argue this shows up as volume not returning to on-chain bitcoin after the fee spikes eased. * This may also be due to a rise in use of bitrefill accounts -- ie, you send a bunch of money to top up your bitrefill account, and then later spend small amounts from that. Doing that provides some insulation from the impact of both on-chain fees and confirmation delays. The thread doesn't give details on how that has changed over time, so there's no indication if there's any correlation with either dropping support for zeroconf or with fee spikes. * Much of the lightning monthly active users (>50%) is due to a business partnership, where the users don't end up using lightning directly. The author speculates that as little as 12.5% (or as much as 25%) of the lightning payments they see are from users who control their own keys. That's not super positive for bitcoin (as a payments system) overall -- lightning growth seems to be almost entirely in the B2B zone, rather than the P2P zone, in particular. It doesn't seem to indicate huge problems resulting from how mempoolfullrbf was handled; though if "just custody funds with bitrefill" was a significant mitigating factor, perhaps that's not terribly positive either from a P2P, be-your-own-bank perspective. IMO, anyway. Thanks to John Carvalho for the pointer to the thread. Cheers, aj -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Bitcoin Development Mailing List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to bitcoindev+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/bitcoindev/aBmgk4nqULp2_5GA%40erisian.com.au.